NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Tuesday 1/3/23
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Spencer Knight ($7,600): Knight is confirmed as the starter for the Florida Panthers tonight, who come in as -345 moneyline favorites against the Arizona Coyotes. The Panthers have dropped two games in a row and are in a clear spot to bounce back against one of the weakest teams in the league, putting Knight in line for a win.
The Coyotes come in scoring only 2.28 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the eighth-lowest in the league, while also allowing the seventh-most goals (2.80) in the same situation. This should put the Panthers' offense to have a big game since they are scoring 2.94 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the fourth-highest in the league. Knight should be in a great spot to pick up the win points.
High-Salaried Skaters
Nikita Kucherov ($10,000): Kucherov is one of the players I have my eye on since he is not only in a great matchup but also is truly due for a goal. The Tampa Bay Lightning have a slate-high 4.09 implied goal total and are set to take on the Chicago Blackhawks, who are one of the worst defensive teams in the league.
To this point in the season, the Blackhawks have allowed 3.15 goals and 62.19 Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed), both per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. Each of those is in the bottom four in the league. If Chicago is on the slate, you want to stack against them every time due to the massive goal-scoring potential.
Kucherov is on the first forward line and the first power-play unit, coming in with 16 NHL points and 35 shots in his last 10 games. Those are elite numbers, however, he has only two goals in this 10-game stretch. He's shooting at a very high volume and simply hasn't been finding the back of the net. This matchup puts him in a great spot to do just that.
Brady Tkachuk ($8,400): Tkachuk is another player who is due for a goal; he has just 1 goal over his last 10 games despite having 37 shots on goal. A fluctuation in production is going to happen, but it's good to see he is continuing to generate chances with his time on the first forward line and the first power-play unit.
The Ottawa Senators have a strong 3.78 implied goal total tonight against the Columbus Blue Jackets, who are another weak defensive team. Columbus also sits in the bottom four of the league in Corsi Against (64.52) and goals allowed (3.42) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations.
The Senators are massively underproducing on offense right now, scoring 2.07 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is 29th in the league. If we look at their expected goals scored (xGF), they should be producing 2.85 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which would put them as the sixth-best team in the league. They are primed for an offensive explosion soon, and this is a matchup that could make it happen.
Value Skaters
Eetu Luostarinen ($4,800): As mentioned, the Panthers come in with a 4.09 implied goal total, tied for the highest on the slate with the Lightning, which should make them a very popular team in all formats tonight. The Panthers have mixed up their lines a bit, and we now see Luostarinen on the second forward line and the second power-play unit.
This is a solid role and it has allowed him to rack up 4 NHL points, 19 shots on goal, and 5 blocked shots in his last 10 games. The Coyotes are allowing 2.80 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the seventh-most in the league, putting the Panthers in a great spot tonight.
Juuso Parssinen ($4,300): The Nashville Predators have been a mess on offense lately, and they've also mixed up their forward lines in a big way. Rookie Juuso Parssinen is now the center on the first forward line and the first power-play unit, which is a massive role for a player at just $4,300.
This is a new role for him, and he comes in with just 4 NHL points and 8 shots on goal in his last 10 games, so the box score doesn't tell the entire picture. The matchup against the Montreal Canadiens is a great landing spot since they allow the sixth-most goals per 60 minutes (2.95) in five-on-five situations.
