NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 11/16/22
We can't control how the cookie crumbles.
Yesterday's nine-game slate didn't even leave us as many quality bets as today's three-game slate. If it means we're watching as much hockey tonight as last night, so be it.
We're looking at totals in all three games today. Here's what our model and I agree on.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Under 6.5 (+108) - 2 Stars
Comrie's -6.96 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) is the fifth-worst in the league, and I won't wager United States tender on him. However, a decent outing from Comrie is likely required from this bet -- and we have more wiggle room.
The Sabres played a nine-goal track meet with Vancouver yesterday, so their tired legs should help an Ottawa defense that is otherwise eighth-worst in expected goals allowed (xGA) per 60 minutes (3.35). Buffalo (3.10) has been quite a bit better.
Overall, our model has this mark as its best bet of the day. It's expecting fewer than six goals 56.6% of the time here. That's a no-brainer bet against these 48.1% implied odds.
Over 6.0 (-110) - 2 Stars
I've -- rightfully -- gotten the pushback that our model just always takes unders.
It's a value model, so in a sport where we cheer for fights and goals, the side with value -- from the public -- is going to be the under a vast majority of the time.
Here's our first over bet of the entire season, and it's public perception working in the opposite direction. These two offenses stink, and just 55% of bets are on the over of this super-low total.
Here's the problem -- neither goalie has earned a total this low with two bottom-half defenses in xGA per 60 minutes. Jordan Binnington (-1.14 GSAx) has been outright bad in stretches this year, and Arvid Soderblom (3.51 GSAx) has been solid in a small five-game sample, but the man gave up 5.01 goals per game last year.
Our model expects at least a push of this number 65.4% of the time. For once, we can root for some scoring.
Under 6.5 (+108) - 2 Stars
We're back down to reality a bit in the nightcap, and this one is going to take some courage.
On full rest, both teams should be deploying their best netminder. Of course, for Edmonton, that's been the surprising Stuart Skinner, who is fourth in the NHL in GSAx (7.47). Jonathan Quick (-2.11) hasn't been nearly as good on the other side, which is why you do see Edmonton as a -142 favorite.
This is just a process play no matter how squeamish it feels. Of the 10 most similar games to this one in our database, 7 fell short of this projected total. Plus, 76% of bets are on the over for this line which continues to rise.
Overall, we're expecting the under to cash 54.1% of the time. Against these +108 odds once again, we've got a value bet.