NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Wednesday 11/2/22
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Ilya Samsonov ($7,900): The Toronto Maple Leafs are huge -345 home favorites against the Philadelphia Flyers, who are on the second night of a back-to-back. The Leafs are off to a rocky start this season, and they need to get things going on the right track with a win against a team that is a clear underdog.
The Leafs actually have some solid defense to start the year and come in allowing 2.33 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the 12th-best in the league. Samsonov is doing his part by allowing three goals or fewer in five of his six starts this season, a level that should put the Leafs in place to win most games.
Auston Matthews ($9,200): Speaking of the Leafs, they have a slate-high 4.07 implied goal total tonight, making Matthews a clear option. It's no secret that the Maple Leafs -- and Matthews -- have been struggling on offense to start the season. The Leafs are scoring 1.81 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the fourth-lowest in the league. This is rather shocking considering their offense has been among the best over the past few seasons.
However, if we look at their Expected Goals Scored (xGF) in the same situations, they should be scoring 2.87 goals, which would be the ninth-best in the league. Next, if we look at the Flyers' defense and goaltending, they have been massively overperforming. They are allowing a mere 2.04 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is good for the fifth-best in the league.
Again, we'll look at their Expected Goals Allowed (xGA) in the same situations, they should be allowing 3.19 goals, putting them as the second-worst team in the league. It's honestly remarkable that we have a matchup of two teams that are both due for serious regression in the good and bad forms. With the Flyers rolling their backup goalie out there tonight, I'm liking Matthews and the Toronto offense.
Jake Guentzel ($8,400): The Pittsburgh Penguins are coming off a disastrous game against the Boston Bruins last night and need to bounce back quickly. After being up 5-2 over the Bruins, the Penguins found a way to lose the game 6-5 in overtime. Not great, Bob.
Despite all of that scoring, Guentzel had only a single assist in 23 minutes of ice time but did have five shots on goal. Guentzel is a primary shooter for the Penguins and will constantly look to fire the puck when he gets the chance. His role on the first forward line and the first power-play are rock solid, putting him in a spot to score every night.
Kyle Okposo ($4,200): The Buffalo Sabres are looking good to start the season, having scored 37 goals in nine games and getting scoring from all over the place. One player who has yet to get involved in that scoring is Okposo, but things could be changing for him soon.
Okposo is now skating on the first forward line and the second power-play unit, which has led him to rack up three shots on goal or more in four of his last five games. An increased offensive role is always great to see, especially when his salary hasn't moved. With a strong volume of shots every night and solid ice time, Okposo should be able to find the back of the net soon.