NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 11/1/22

Tuesday's 12-game slate is just about as large as you'll see the entire season. It's loaded up after yesterday's holiday, and teams are ready to roll.

Which sides (or totals) are the best spots to wager today, per our handsome and charming model? I'll show you.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals

Capitals ML (+130) - 3 Stars

Our model likes the Washington Capitals to pull a home upset tonight despite Washington playing last night.

The Caps are facing Vegas after last night's run-in with Carolina, but the Golden Knights are a team destined to cool down. Their expected-goals-for percentage of 58.8% doesn't quite match the gaudy 65.3% goals-for percentage they've posted on the way to an 8-2-0 start.

The Caps might be a good team to target on back-to-backs given the quality of their goaltending tandem. We wrote up Darcy Kuemper yesterday, but Charlie Lindgren is 13th in goals saved above expectation (2.99 GSAx). This is arguably the best goalie duo in hockey at the moment.

Overall, our model gives Washington a 55.7% chance to win tonight, but they're implied just 43.5% likely to win by the +130 moneyline. This is numberFire's best bet of the night.

Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins

Under 6.5 (-118) - 3 Stars

In a bit of an upset, our model thinks Tristan Jarry will hold David Pastrnak and the red-hot Bruins in check.

Boston has a claim to best team in hockey right now. They've top five in both expected goals scored and allowed. Luckily, the Penguins have been otherworldly at home, allowing the third-fewest goals per 60 minutes (1.96) in the split so far.

When Pittsburgh has control of the puck, it won't be easy sledding. I alluded to the B's defense, but Linus Ullmark is 6-0 and ninth in GSAx (4.33) so far.

The offensive talent here is drawing bettors to back the over, but I'm leaning on our model's historical game comps in this spot. Of the 20 most similarly profiled games to this one in our database, 14 of them fell short of seven goals.

The under is 65.8% likely to win, per our model. Even against these inflated odds (54.1% implied), a value bet was born.

New Jersey Devils at Vancouver Canucks

Canucks ML (+100) - 3 Stars

Don't look now, but the Vancouver Canucks are on a heater.

They've won each of their past two games, and they're in a nice spot against a team (and goaltender) I'm happy to fade.

The Devils actually rate out as the best team in hockey in expects goals-for rate (65.9%), but there's a whopper of a reason it hasn't been converted on -- Mackenzie Blackwood. Blackwood's -2.87 GSAx is 14th-worst in hockey despite playing behind one of the sport's top defenses. Not great, Bob!

I want to continue to buy Vancouver at home. Their poor record is a result of the struggles of Thatcher Demko, but unlike Blackwood, we've seen Demko play at an elite level. He was 17th in GSAx last year, but he's 62nd out of 64 qualifiers this season. I'm still willing to call it a slump.

Overall, our model gives the 'Nucks a 63.6% chance to win this one. Against these exact 50.0% implied odds, we've got a third bet to add to Tuesday's card.