NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Thursday 10/20/22
Hockey is back!
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Jacob Markstrom ($8,700): The Calgary Flames are big -300 home favorites against the Buffalo Sabres, which should put them in a spot to come away with the win. Another season and another time we see the Flames as a strong defensive team, allowing 2.40 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the 12th lowest in the league.
It's only been three games, but I actually expect that number to get lower -- that's how good they are on defense. If we look at their expected goals allowed, it's sitting at a minuscule 1.89 per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. They are due for some positive regression, and that could start tonight.
The Sabres are overperforming on offense right now by an additional 1.06 goals scored, the differential between their current goals scored and their expected goals scored. Markstrom is in a great spot to come away with the win tonight, making him one of the safest options in net.
David Pastrnak ($9,700): It's a contract year for Pasta, and he is starting out on fire in all areas. Through four games, he has a whopping 24 shots on goal and 8 NHL points, making him one of the best options on this loaded 12-game slate. The Boston Bruins come in with a 3.74 implied goal total and have a juicy matchup against the Anaheim Ducks.
To no one's surprise, the Ducks are struggling to start the season, allowing the second-most goals (4.76) along with the third-worst Corsi Against (70.19), both per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. Their defense is non-existent, and it creates immense upside for any opponent.
The Bruins' offense is cookin' right now, pouring in 4.60 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the second-highest in the league. This is as lopsided of a matchup as you can find tonight, and that should lead to plenty of goals for Pastrnak and the Bruins.
Mika Zibanejad ($9,100): The New York Rangers have a big 3.95 implied goal total tonight and are facing down an easy opponent tonight in the San Jose Sharks. It's looking like the Sharks will be a team we are attacking throughout the season, so get on board.
To start the year, the Sharks are in the bottom half of the league in Corsi Against, Goals Against, and High-Danger-Scoring Chances allowed, all per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. They are giving up a ton of shot attempts, and a good portion of those attempts are coming close to the net and resulting in goals. This is a perfect storm for opposing offenses and should those players to reach for their fantasy ceilings.
Zibanejad is on the first forward line and the first power-play unit for the Rangers, which has resulted in him racking up 24 shots on goal and 8 NHL points in four games.
Andrei Kuzmenko ($5,200): With a big 7.0 over/under, we should see plenty of goals between the Vancouver Canucks and the Minnesota Wild. To put things lightly, neither of these teams are playing good defense to start the season. Yes, we have a small three- or four-game sample size, but it's not looking great. Both teams are in the bottom 12 of the league for the most goals allowed per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations.
This creates a very fantasy-friendly matchup tonight, and we can turn to some of the value within this game. Kuzmenko is skating on the second forward line and the first power-play unit for the Canucks, which is a strong offensive role for a player at only $5,200. Kuzmenko has racked up 12 shots on goal and 4 NHL points in four games this season.
Dylan Strome ($5,000): With Evgeny Kuznetsov suspended for one game, Strome is in a spot for a new offensive role. Strome should be on the second forward line but, more importantly, also the first power-play with Alex Ovechkin. While Strome won't be a high-volume shooter, the shared ice time with Ovechkin puts him in a spot to pick up some assists on the power play.
The matchup versus the Ottawa Senators has a 6.5 over/under and should feature plenty of offense, giving Strome a clear path to upside tonight.