NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 10/19/22
There are only three games on Wednesday, but there's a heavyweight fight between two Western Conference favorites and a total we should love targeting.
How do we bet on this trio of games tonight?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Under 7.0 (-144) - 3 Stars
A seven-goal total feels like a treat every time we can find it.
In this case, the path to failure is obvious. Philadelphia's defense has come a long way since last year's bottom-tier effort. They've allowed the 12th-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.93 xGF/60) in the NHL so far. That's good to know considering they're turning to backup netminder Felix Sandstrom for the first time this year.
On the other side, the lowly Flyers offense has posted the eighth-fewest expected goals (8.79) as well. Florida's Sergei Bobrovsky has started a bounce-back campaign himself, posting the third-most goals saved above expectation (2.35 GSAx) on the year.
All in all, our model sees this bet winning outright 52.7% of the time. That means if this line moves to 6.5 goals, you can take anything longer than -110 odds. However, it forecasts this game to push against seven goals another 21.7% of the time.
Therefore, we'll at least get our money back 74.4% of the time. Against these 59.0% implied odds, take the under.
Jets +1.5 (-140) - 2 Stars
This is a really, really good hockey game buried on an NBA Wednesday.
The Jets have had a brutal start to the year, and of course, that won't get any easier with a trip to Colorado tonight. They faced the Rangers at home before taking on the Stars in Dallas on Tuesday. However, this is a good team. They were -150 before the season to make the playoffs.
As a result, I'm taking their metrics with a bit of a grain of salt. The Avs, meanwhile, have already played the best of the conference (Calgary) and the bottom (Chicago), so this test will be somewhere in between.
Thus far, the defending champions are just 16th in expected-goals-for percentage (52.3% xGF%), and Alexandar Georgiev has posted a blah -0.06 GSAx. They don't seem like the same juggernaut as last year worth considering a -1.5 puckline at just +114 odds, but 92% of the public is taking it. What could go wrong?
Instead, our model thinks Winnipeg keeps this game within a tally 64.1% of the time. That's a two-star wager against these 58.3% implied odds.