NHL Betting Guide: Friday 6/3/22

It was a bit shocking to see the wheels come off the wagon for the defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 1, but the New York Rangers responded to the challenge to defend home ice.

Will the Bolts snatch Game 2, or does New York send this series to Tampa up 2-0?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers

Rangers ML (+112) - 2 Stars
Rangers +1.5 (-250) - 2 Stars
Under 5.5 (-122) - 2 Stars

Despite being series favorites, our model isn't so sure Tampa Bay bounces back in Game 2.

It actually believes the Rangers win this one 53.3% of the time, but they're underdogs at 47.2% implied probability. Therefore, the moneyline is rated as a two-star wager.

For the less daring, the Rangers' puckline gives them a goal cushion for a -250 price (71.4% implied odds) instead. But, since the model believes the Rags stay within a goal 76.6% of the time, there is still value present to pay the said price.

Most notable -- in my opinion -- is that the total sits here at just 5.5 goals, but don't slam the over. Not only does this game (and this series) feature two top-four netminders in terms of goals saved above expectation this year, our model believes this one falls short of six goals 61.6% of the time.

The numberFire model compares profiles of this contest to ones most alike, and that obviously includes the Game 1 "over" between these two squads. Still, of the 20 most similarly-profiled contests to Friday's tilt, 12 of them fell short of six goals.

Personally, I prefer the "under" rather than selling Tampa's championship pedigree short, but it's also hard to dismiss a red-hot Rangers offense on home ice.