NHL Betting Guide: Monday 5/23/22
One team tonight is facing elimination. The other, down potentially 3-1 and sans their starting goalie, is facing pseudo-elimination.
Will either survive? In one case, I think you can bet on it.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Lightning ML (-126) - 0 Stars
Under 6.5 (-122) - 2 Stars
I'm adding a bet that the model otherwise would advise no action. Tampa Bay is 54.5% likely to win the game, per our model. However, the -126 odds carry a 55.2% implied probability, so while there's no mathematical value, I'll bet the Bolts.
In the 20 most similar games to this one in numberFire's database, the home favorite won 15 of those contests. Andrei Vasilevskiy has also allowed just 11 goals in his past eight potential elimination games, raising his level when extra rest is on the horizon.
The Ice Cats have had a horrific time figuring out Tampa's defense in this series, posting just three goals. Their expected total (9.3) is much higher, but the former Vezina Trophy winner in net makes all the difference.
With that the case, the under is advised, per numberFire's model, as well. We see this game staying shy of seven tallies 60.7% of the time.
Blues ML (+130) - 2 Stars
Under 6.5 (-106) - 2 Stars
This season, Binnington scuffled to -10.01 goals saved above expected, which was a bottom-20 mark in the NHL among the 118 goalies that registered time in net. His backup and tonight's projected starter, Ville Husso, was seventh in the entire league in that category (+14.18) in a tremendous regular season.
It's possible St. Louis actually sees a lift moving off its former Stanley-Cup-winning goaltender for the better netminder this year. However, the Blues are a home 'dog in this spot due to public sentiment around Binner's absence.
numberFire's model gives the Blues a 53.2% chance to win this contest outright versus 43.5% implied odds. Two stars may not be high enough, fellas.
The under also remains sharp in any game involving the high-octane Avalanche. These two teams have combined for just 5.54 expected goals per contest thus far, but the total still sits at a sporty 6.5 goals. The model expects this one to stay south of seven goals 58.6% of the time.