NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 5/10/22
Four series tied at two games each will be decided on Tuesday in a phenomenal night of hockey.
Which sides should we back on FanDuel Sportsbook?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Bruins ML (+134) - 1 Star
Under 6.0 (-120) - 4 Stars
These were two of the bottom three squads in Corsi Against this season. It's shocking to see 26 goals through the first four contests, and it's been very real with 25.95 expected goals as a result of the shot volume.
However, history might be on our side. Inside 13 of the 20 most similar games to this matchup, the "under" cashed on the projected total. All in all, the model is giving a hearty 61.12% chance this game falls short of six tallies. Even with the -120 odds, that's tremendous value on just a 54.5% implied probability.
I'm also backing the B's in this one. Boston has posted 14.12 expected goals in this series and has scored just 12 times. Carolina has 14 tallies on just 11.83 expected goals. Regression could find the Bruins just as it did with the hometown Celtics on Monday.
Kings +1.5 (-138) - 2 Stars
Under 6.5 (-115) - 4 Stars
At 40 years old, Mike Smith has been absolutely standing on his head in this series. Smith's 5.30 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) in this series is second in the entire playoffs. We've seen two of the other hottest goalies, Jake Oettinger and Igor Shesterkin, come crashing down to Earth as their series have progressed. I expect Smith to as well.
Our model gives the Kings a 63.15% chance to keep tonight's contest within a goal. Of the 20 most similar games to this one analytically, 12 of the underdogs covered the puckline -- including L.A. in Game 1.
An even greater number of those 20 games (14) fell short of their projected total. The Kings slowed the high-powered Oilers to just a moderate 18 high-danger scoring chances in Game 4, and expect a defensive gameplan the rest of the series as the stakes tighten.
I'm opposite the model with a stronger lean on the puckline here, but Los Angeles could absolutely sit on an early lead.