NHL Betting Guide: Monday 5/9/22
Three underdogs entering their playoff runs -- Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Washington -- have a chance to take a commanding 3-1 lead in their series on Monday.
The underdog Nashville Predators? Not quite. They've been swallowed whole by the Avalanche.
Given the public now views most of these series as far more even than where they began, which bets still appear to have value?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Florida Panthers at Washington Capitals
Capitals +1.5 (-156) - 2 Stars
Under 6.5 (+110) - 2 Stars
The Florida Panthers were a popular pick to come out of the Eastern Conference. They'll settle for one series win at this moment.
The Ice Cats' peripherals metrics are the true concern much more than a 2-1 series deficit. Florida is 11th in expected goals-for percentage (45.7%) during the postseason while sitting 13th in actual goals-for percentage.
They've been outplayed.
Even with the lopsided results in this series, our model still believes in taking minus-money juice on the Caps to keep this within a goal. After all, of the 20 most similar contests to this one in numberFire's database, 15 of the teams representing Washington covered a one-goal spread.
This series has also scored slightly better than expected. These teams are averaging just 6.17 expected goals per contest, but that actual number has been 6.33. There's just a 47.6% implied probability behind +110 odds this one stays below a 6.5-goal total that's higher than both of those, so that "under" is worth a long look here, too.
New York Rangers at Pittsburgh Penguins
Penguins ML (-102) - 1 Star
Under 6.0 (-110) - 4 Stars
Igor Shesterkin is standing on his head.
The Rangers' goalie has an absurd 139 saves through three games in this series. Not only will fatigue certainly become a factor, but the 92.8% save rate behind just allowing 10 goals in this series is ridiculous.
Shesterkin was pulled early in Game 3, but he's done everything he can. The Penguins are credited with 18.21 expected goals in this series, but just 13 have actually found twine. Pittsburgh is dramatically outplaying the Rags in this series thus far.
As a result, numberFire's model gives Pittsburgh a 53.7% chance to win this game outright. Compared to the 50.5% implied opportunity behind their odds, we've got a bit of value to back the Pens in this spot.
The even 6.0-goal total is the model's top play of the day; it rates it as a four-star wager. I agree with a bit more trepidation than that, but it's an easy side to back with two hot goalies sporting save percentages above 90%. Plus, 14 of the 20 games most similar to this one in numberFire's database either pushed or fell short of the projected goal total.