NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Friday 5/6/22
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com or DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in to take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Andrei Vasilevskiy ($7,900): The Tampa Bay Lightning are -115 home favorites against the Toronto Maple Leafs and in a close series that's tied 1-1. Game 1 was ugly for Vasilevskiy and Tampa, losing 5-0. Game 2 was a return to form, winning 5-3. It's likely going to be a back and forth series, but the Lightning should be able to come away with the win at home tonight.
The Lightning are allowing 3.99 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations in the first two games of the playoffs. Of course, that's an extremely small sample size, but that's also substantially worse than their season rate of 2.64 goals allowed. I'm expecting the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions to bounce back and show that strong defense tonight.
High-Salaried Skaters
David Pastrnak ($8,700): The Boston Bruins have not looked good in the first two games of their series versus the Carolina Hurricanes, and it's getting to desperation time. They have mustered three goals in the first two games, which is rather concerning considering they play the majority of Game 2 against the Hurricanes' third-string goalie, Pyotr Kochetkov. They need to start generating more offense, and that comes down to Pastrnak.
He has no points through the first two games, which is very unlike him considering he posted 77 NHL points in 74 games this season, along with an average of 4.3 shots on goal per game. The shots are still there for him this series with 13 in the first two games, which is awesome. He's doing the right thing but just isn't seeing the results yet. I'll take a player who is on the first forward line and the first power-play with 13 shots over two games but hasn't found the back of the net just yet.
Victor Hedman ($7,600): Hedman had a monster Game 2 with four NHL points, three shots on goal, and four blocked shots. While the four NHL points in a game aren't sustainable, the secondary stats can be, especially the blocked shots. He continues to be one of the elite defenders in the league and has some offensive upside -- now four points every game -- due to his role on the first power-play unit. This game features a 6.5 over/under, and given the offenses on both sides, there could be some scoring.
Value Skaters
Brayden Schenn ($5,400): Value can be tougher to find in the playoffs, but Schenn fits the description of what we want. He's on the third forward line but is also on the first power-play unit, which is a solid role in what is a very balanced St. Louis Blues offense. They had nine different forwards with at least 20 goals this season, and he was one of them. They can get production up and down their lineup, which is not something every team can say. At first glance, his third-line role isn't great, but given their track record of production, it's a spot to trust.
Alex Iafallo ($4,700): The Los Angeles Kings (+125) are the only home team that comes in as underdogs on the moneyline. It's a close series versus the Edmonton Oilers, and if they are going to be overlooked because they aren't the favorites, this is a spot to look to them in tournaments. The Oilers will have Mike Smith in net tonight, who's coming off a shutout in Game 2. In Game 1, he allowed for goals. Throughout the regular season, he allowed 2.81 goals per game. A shutout is clearly well above his normal level of production.
This is why I'm targeting some of the Kings' players tonight, and Iafallo has clear value being under $5,000 while on the second forward line and the first power-play unit. A goal in Game 1 along with four shots on goal in Game 2 are encouraging for his production.
