NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 4/13/22

Colorado is generally overvalued in the betting market due to their star-studded offense. Should we back the Kings tonight instead?

The Stanley Cup Playoffs are just around the corner, as we approach the final two weeks of the season. Bettors have just three games to sift through on tonight's NHL docket, but that isn't stopping us from running through our projections, highlighting some of our favorite wagers on the board.

These are the plays we're looking at from our daily projections.

Colorado Avalanche vs. Los Angeles Kings

Kings +1.5 (-110): 2-Star Rating Out of 5

The Colorado Avalanche need just six more points to secure their first Central Division banner since 2013-14 -- albeit, the Avs did win the West Division last year during the shortened, re-aligned season. Standing in their way is the Los Angeles Kings, who should put up more of a fight than the betting market implies.

Analytically, the Kings rank as one of the best teams in the NHL this season, posting the eighth-best expected goals-for rating at five-on-five. They've maintained that solid play over their current schedule, outplaying four of their past six opponents. Defense has been at the forefront of their efforts recently, limiting all but two of their past six opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances.

That defensive structure will be key to limiting the Avs' attack, but Colorado isn't doing themselves any favors with their recent performances. The Avs have been limited to nine or fewer high-danger chances in four of their past seven, failing to attempt more than four quality chances in three of those contests. That's had a negative impact on output; Colorado has been limited to three or fewer goals in four of those games.

The betting market has overreacted to the Avs' chances tonight, leaving an edge in backing the Kings. The most substantial advantage comes in backing L.A. on the puckline which we rate as a two-star play, per our algorithm.

Philadelphia Flyers vs. New York Rangers

Over 6 (-110): 1-Star Rating Out of 5

The Philadelphia Flyers and New York Rangers both made missteps in their goaltending usage last night, which impacts their ability to compete on the second night of back-to-backs. That should lead to a high-scoring affair as these Metropolitan Division rivals square off in Philly.

Philadelphia is coming off a 9-2 shellacking at the hands of the Washington Capitals last night in a game in which they were forced to use both goalies. That puts them at a disadvantage with no fresh goalie to limit a dangerous Rangers attack.

New York also misplayed their analytics cards last night, electing to start primary goalie Igor Shesterkin. That means that Alexandar Georgiev is the expected starter tonight. He holds a dreary 89.4% save percentage and -10.0 goals saved above average mark.

One of these teams is going to open things up offensively, forcing the other to keep pace. That should lead to a high-scoring game, which aligns with our projections. They rate the over six goals as a one-star play.