NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 4/6/22
There may be only four games on the docket tonight, but each one of them has playoff implications. The least of which comes between the Detroit Red Wings and Winnipeg Jets, as Winnipeg sits seven points back of the Dallas Stars for the final wild-card berth. Otherwise, we should expect playoff intensity as teams look to assert themselves as Stanley Cup contenders.
Here are the wagers we're looking at from our daily projections!
St. Louis Blues vs. Seattle Kraken
Blues moneyline (-250): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The St. Louis Blues are feeling the pressure from the Stars and Nashville Predators in the playoff race. They sit five points up on the Stars and four ahead of the Preds, holding onto the third spot in the Central Division. They can use tonight's contest against the Seattle Kraken to tighten their grip on their playoff spot and move within one point of the Minnesota Wild for home-ice advantage in the first round of the postseason.
The Blues have elevated their offensive production over their recent stretch, which has had a direct impact on output. St. Louis has attempted 11 or more high-danger and 27 or more scoring chances in three of their past four games, averaging 11.0 and 27.8, respectively, in that split. That has helped the Blues to an impressive 5.0 goals per game over the four-game sample, recording at least four goals in each game, a pace the Kraken won't be able to keep up with.
Seattle has been one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league this season, averaging the fourth-fewest goals per game. The Kraken continue to put up diminished metrics, failing to surpass eight high-danger chances and 25 scoring chances in four of their past six games. Their competitiveness also takes a big hit on the road, as they've posted game scores below 50.0% in five of their previous seven outings and the 10th-worst rating on the season.
There's a clear gap in talent between these teams, which isn't reflected enough in the betting price. The Blues are headed toward the postseason, and the Kraken will start their re-tooling process at the end of the regular season. That leaves an edge in backing the Blues on the moneyline, a wager we rate as a two-star play, per our projections.
Anaheim Ducks vs. Calgary Flames
Under 6 (-108): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
The Calgary Flames' lead in the Pacific Division has been shrunk to four points; however, they have two games in hand over the second-place Edmonton Oilers. One of those games comes tonight against the Anaheim Ducks, a clash we project to be a low-scoring affair.
The Flames have been one of the best defensive teams in the league this season, allowing the third-fewest scoring and fourth-fewest high-danger opportunities. Calgary has alternated between above- and below-average defensive performances over their past seven games, but we're anticipating more sincere defensive efforts from them as they gather steam before the playoffs. The Flames have allowed 10 or more quality chances in four of their past seven -- well above their season average of 7.6. Darryl Sutter runs a tight ship, and defense will be a priority moving forward.
Similarly, the Ducks are above their defensive averages over their recent sample, implying that they are positive regression candidates over their coming games. Anaheim is allowing an average of 12.3 high-danger and 29.8 scoring opportunities over their past four games, deviating from their usual marks of 9.1 and 22.5, respectively. Improved defensive efforts should be expected from the Ducks.
Both teams rely on solid defensive zone coverage, which we haven't seen from either lately. But these teams' pendulums have swung far enough in the opposite direction that we are anticipating growth from them over their next few games. That should lead to more low-scoring games, which we are anticipating tonight in Anaheim. We rate the under 6.0 as a three-star play, according to our algorithm.
