NHL Betting Guide: Monday 4/4/22
With March Madness concluding on Monday night, the NHL went light with just four games on the schedule. Even with the light night, our model feels really great about a couple of spots.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Boston Bruins at Columbus Blue Jackets
Blue Jackets Moneyline (+202) -- 2 Stars
Blue Jackets +1.5 (-128) -- 3 Stars
Even with our model giving the Columbus Blue Jackets just a 39.9% chance to win tonight's game, that's still well above their 33.1% implied odds at +202.
The Bruins should be one of the chalkier picks of the night as a road favorite. They posted a 10-3-1 record en route to 21 points in March -- fourth in the NHL. That was predicated on allowing the fewest expected goals (32.86) in the NHL last month. Still, with just the 13th-best expected goal total themselves (46.49), they aren't the most ferocious offense to pull away from a puckline.
Columbus had the ninth-worst expected goals-for percentage (46.67%) in the NHL last month, so they were definitely amongst the bottom-third of teams. Yet, despite the poor performances, they scored a point in 9 of their 15 contests in March. They keep things tight.
That's the reasoning behind this bet. Expecting Columbus to win outright more than 50% of the time would be foolish, but they do have a better chance to keep things tight than the public is giving them credit for at this price. Because the Jackets have done such a great job getting to the extra period, the puckline at -128 makes a ton of sense.
numberFire's model agrees, giving Columbus +1.5 a three-star rating.
Calgary Flames at Los Angeles Kings
Under 6.0 (-118) -- 3 Stars
The Calgary Flames have been outperforming their peripherals most of the season, but regression has hit hard in the past week.
The Flames have posted just seven goals in the last seven days (third-fewest in the NHL). However, their spotty defense and goaltending have kept them in games recently; Calgary posted the sixth-best expected goals against mark in this same period. They've been a little lucky offensively and a little unlucky defensively for most of the season. Now, it's regressing back to normal.
The Kings are down for a defensive matchup. They posted the 11th-fewest expected goals allowed in March, but they were just a solid 8-5-3 due to also posting a bottom-10 mark in expected goals scored. L.A. has been a club that's struggled offensively for years, and their power-play unit isn't the same without Drew Doughty at the point.
There are two ways to view this game: Calgary bounces back to their prior results or their general trend towards the seventh-best offense in goals scored and expected goals -- which is the case now -- continues with a tame evening.
Our model prefers the latter, awarding it three-star confidence that this one stays under the 6.0-goal total.
