NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 3/16/22
Home teams had a field day on last night's docket, taking down seven of the 11 contests. Totals were split more evenly with the "over" cashing in six of 11. The betting market has landed on some accurate numbers for today's four-game slate, leaving more modest advantages to play.
These are the wagers we're looking at from our daily projections.
Kraken +1.5 (-112): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
The most significant edge in the betting market comes in the inter-conference matchup between the Seattle Kraken and Tampa Bay Lightning. The Kraken have been good on home ice this season, and they can use that to their advantage against a road-weary Lightning squad.
Defense has been at the forefront of Seattle's system; they have limited their opponents to nine or fewer quality chances in 22 of 30 home games this season. That has shifted game scores in the Kraken's favor over their recent sample, posting expected goals-for ratings above 50.0% in four of their past seven.
Tonight's contest will be the Lightning's sixth straight road game over the past 11 days. That travel could be catching up with the Bolts. They've only out-chanced their opponents in high-danger chances in two of those games. Those efforts are shifting the expected goals-for ratings away from the Lightning since Tampa got outplayed in two of their previous four games.
According to our projections, the Lightning have a 61.6% chance of winning tonight -- substantially lower than the 74.1% implied probability that comes with their -285 moneyline price. Consequently, there's an advantage in backing Seattle tonight. The biggest of which is backing them on the puckline, which is rated as a three-star play.
Under 6.0 (+116): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Goals will be at a premium when the Columbus Blue Jackets travel to take on the Ottawa Senators on Wednesday. Both teams have put forth some staunch defensive efforts over their recent samples while overachieving offensively.
The Jackets have tightened up their defensive zone coverage recently, limiting five of their past seven opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances. That increased defensive presence has come at a time when their offensive metrics are also decreased. Columbus has attempted more than seven quality chances just twice over their eight-game sample. Limited offensive production will have a negative impact on output, and the Jackets are operating above expected levels.
That regression can be facilitated by a Sens team that is playing lockdown coverage on their end. Ottawa has limited their opponents to nine or fewer quality chances in five straight games, giving up an average of 6.6 per game. We're anticipating that to lead to fewer goals. Sens' goalies have given up 14 goals over their last three games, and that's well beyond expectation.
Quality chances will be hard to come by at the Canadian Tire Center on Wednesday. That should lead to fewer goals, creating an edge on taking the under at plus-money tonight. That aligns with our projections, rating under 6.0 goals as a two-star play.