NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Friday 3/4/22
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com or DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in to take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Connor Hellebuyck ($7,700): The Winnipeg Jets are slight -104 home underdogs, but it's worth going to Hellebuyck in net. The Dallas Stars are -115 road favorites and come in with a lackluster offense this season. The Stars are scoring only 2.20 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the eighth-fewest in the league. The Jets' defense is allowing 2.43 goals in the same split, putting them at 16th in the league and making this a somewhat favorable matchup overall.
Hellebuyck comes in with only one win in his last five games but has plenty of fantasy viability when he does pick up the victory. That is due to the high volume of saves he records on a nightly basis, picking up at least 31 saves in four of his last five games. If he comes away with a win, an outing of 30-plus FanDuel points could be on tap.
High-Priced Skaters
Steven Stamkos ($8,500): Stammer and the Tampa Bay Lightning looked terrible last night versus the Pittsburgh Penguins. There's really no other way to put it, but this a chance for them to bounce back versus the Detroit Red Wings. The Lightning score 2.81 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which ranks as the ninth-most. We see the Red Wings' defense in the bottom 10 of the league for the most goals allowed (2.86) and Corsi Against (57.26) -- both per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations.
Stamkos sees time on the second forward line and the first power-play, either of which would be a great spot to stack. He comes in with 10 NHL points and 26 shots on goal over his last 10 games, making him viable in all formats.
Viktor Arvidsson ($6,400): The Los Angeles Kings have a very solid 3.52 implied total and are a great team to stack for a few reasons. First off, Arvidsson is only $6,400, yet he is tied for the highest-salaried skater on the team. That makes stacking LA a bit easier. Next, they are going up against the Columbus Blue Jackets, who are allowing 3.27 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, the most in the league.
The Kings' offense is scoring only 2.41 goals in the same situations, which is 18th in the league. But if we look at their Expected Goals Scored (xGF), they should be scoring 2.84 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which would be the fourth-best in the league. That's a sizable jump for an offense, and that's due to the fact they have a 60.69 Corsi For, which is the fifth-best in the league. They are constantly generating offensive chances, but they simply aren't scoring a ton of goals right now. They are due for some serious positive regression, and this leads us to Arvidsson, who is on the second forward line and the first power-play unit.
Value Skaters
Yegor Sharangovich ($5,300): The matchup of the New Jersey Devils and the New York Rangers is going to see plenty of scoring, and it's a great spot for a game stack. Eight of the last 10 games between these two teams have totaled at least seven goals, giving us plenty of fantasy upside. Sharangovich is a nice value option to consider, and he has 12 NHL points and 20 shots on goal over the last 10 games. He has a roll on the first forward line and the second power-play unit, putting him in a great spot to grab fantasy points in what should be a higher-scoring game.
Frederick Gaudreau ($4,800): Gaudreau has 8 NHL points, 21 shots on goal, and 6 blocked shots over his last 10 games. He offer solid point-per-dollar value and has a great matchup versus the Buffalo Sabres, who are allowing the sixth-most (2.89) goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. The Minnesota Wild have the second-best offense, scoring 3.28 goals in the same situations. Gaudreau has a role on the second forward and the second power-play unit, giving him a great chance to continue to produce.
