NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 1/26/22
Favorites are having a field day to start the week, winning 13 of the first 15 games. We're expecting some pushback from underdogs tonight, as we highlight a pair of road underdogs with solid underlying metrics who are undervalued in the betting market.
These are the wagers we're looking at from our daily projections!
Sharks +1.5 (-138): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Sharks Moneyline (+190): 1-Star Rating out of 5
The San Jose Sharks travel to the East Coast for an inter-conference battle with the Washington Capitals. San Jose has a few key indicators working in their favor, implying that they are due for more good outcomes.
Analytically, the Sharks have been dominant, outplaying six of their past eight opponents. They've established a 52.7% expected goals-for rating over that span thanks to some strong offensive showings. San Jose has attempted 10 or more quality chances in six of eight games, with a rolling average of 11.5 per game over that span.
Scheduling could impact the Caps' competitiveness tonight as they deal with a condensed time frame. Tonight's contest will be their seventh contest over the past 12 nights, and they could be entering a burnout phase. Washington's shooting percentage has decreased in each of the past three games and further correction could be coming, as their season-long PDO remains above average.
Based on our projections, the market is overestimating the Caps' chances tonight. The Sharks have a 37.8% chance of winning tonight, which is better than the 34.5% implied probability that comes with their +190 moneyline price. That also leaves a more pronounced advantage on the puckline. We rate those wagers as one- and two-star wagers, respectively.
Ducks Moneyline (+230): 1-Star Rating out of 5
We've shifted our focus to another east versus west matchup, as the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Anaheim Ducks at the Scotiabank Arena. The Leafs have dropped two of their past four, while the Ducks offense is surging, leaving an edge in backing the visitors tonight.
The Ducks have knocked off the Tampa Bay Lightning and Boston Bruins over their past two outings, scoring 10 goals in each matchup. That onslaught could continue against the Leafs, as their shooting percentage remains below-average despite increased offensive metrics. Anaheim has averaged 12.8 high-danger chances per game over their past four games, supporting that their recent uptick is sustainable.
That could be an issue for the Maple Leafs, who have struggled to contain opponents over their past few games. The Leafs' goalies have allowed five goals in two of their previous three games, stopping just 82.3% of shots over that span. That's been an issue for Jack Campbell, who has allowed four or more goals in five of his past nine starts.
According to our projections, there's an edge in backing the Ducks tonight. Anaheim's offense is firing on all cylinders, while the Leafs' goaltenders have been struggling. Backing the Ducks is rated as a one-star play.