NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 1/13/22
We've got a lot to look forward to on Thursday night, with an 11-game NHL schedule spanning across the continent. Home teams swept the board last night, with all three winning and the two betting favorites covering the -1.5 puck line. We're looking for more of the same in today's NHL Betting Guide.
These are the wagers we're looking at from our daily projections!
It's rare to see an NHL home game in a Canadian city, but that's what we get when the Calgary Flames host the Ottawa Senators. Both teams are coming off an extended absence, with the Flames last playing on January 7 and the Sens' previous game on January 1.
Calgary has a distinct advantage in the advanced metrics, and that's even more pronounced on home ice. The Flames have the best-rated expected goals-for percentage at five-on-five on home ice this season. Their 63.5% rating is nearly 3.5 percentage points better than the next closest team's, as they've put up a 305-168 scoring chance ratio and 118-65 high-danger chance ratio, illustrating their effectiveness on both ends of the ice.
That's going to impact the young Senators' ability to compete, as they've struggled as the visitors this season. Ottawa has the 28th-ranked expected goals-for percentage, getting outplayed in 13 of 15 road games this year.
The Flames are the NHL's best team on home ice this season and should easily dispatch the Sens. Based on our projections, the -275 moneyline price undervalues the Flames' chances. That line implies a 73.3% chance to win while we give Cargary win odds of 77.3%. On that basis, taking Calgary to win is a two-star play.
The Nashville Predators are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, winning eight of their past 10, including five straight. That momentum should help them skate past the Buffalo Sabres, who remain one of the league's worst squads.
The Sabres rank among the worst teams in the league in most advanced metrics. Buffalo has the sixth-worst scoring chance ratio, fourth-worst high-danger chance ratio, and fifth-worst shots-for rating, culminating in the second-worst expected goals-for percentage at five-on-five. Somehow, they've looked even worse over their recent sample, getting outplayed in six straight games and posting a cumulative expected goals-for rating of 36.4%.
Those poor metrics should allow the Preds to continue their recent onslaught. Nashville has scored four or more goals in four of their past five, attempting at least 10 quality chances in three of those contests. The Preds also have the benefit of home-ice advantage, where they are 11-5-0 this season and posting a 54.5% expected goals-for rating.
The offenses should find success in this game, and based on our projections, the Sabres won't be able to keep pace. It's on that basis the over and Preds moneyline are rated as one-star bets.