NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 1/11/22

We've got seven games still to play after some had to be postponed again, so let's see where we can find value in the remaining games.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Chicago Blackhawks vs. Columbus Blue Jackets

Chicago Moneyline (-110) 1-Star Rating out of 5
Chicago +1.5 (-260) 3-Star Rating out of 5

We have a game here between two teams that will likely both miss the playoffs. So how do we make it more interesting to watch? Of course, we put some money down on it.

This season has not been the season that some Chicago Blackhawks believers thought it could be. Some people thought that with their offseason moves and the return of Jonathan Toews to the lineup, they were legitimate contenders to be one of the best teams in the Central Division. That hasn't been the case all season and led to the firing of coach Jeremy Colliton.

Since the coaching change, Chicago has been playing better. They have a respectable points percentage of .543 with Derek King behind the bench. They've also been getting better goaltending from Marc-Andre Fleury, who has 3.54 goals saved above expected with the new coach. They also just played a solid game against the Vegas Golden Knights on the road, beating them 2-1.

Their opponent tonight will be the Columbus Blue Jackets, who have come back down to earth after a hot start. They are 3-6-1 in their last 10 games and have some troubling underlying numbers. They allow the fourth-most expected goals per 60 minutes and the fifth-most shot attempts against per 60. They were getting bailed out by goaltending earlier in the season, but that hasn't happened of late. Joonas Korpisalo has been brutal, allowing the fifth-most goals above expected and having a save percentage of .886.

Chicago has a talent edge with their skaters and in net, so they are justifiably the favorite. However, -118 is a bit too short, as our model would have them closer to -133. It's not often we can bet a favorite at a +1.5 puck line unless we delve into alternate lines, so we can also take that if we want some action on this game.

Vancouver Canucks vs. Florida Panthers

Under 6.5 (-114) 2-Star Rating out of 5

There has been a lot of talk about the number of goals being scored since the holiday break. We've seen some crazy games with goals in the double-digits, and this may have caused the bookmakers to set higher totals. There are some 6.5 totals out there tonight, and this is one we can pick off for an under.

When the Vancouver Canucks hired Bruce Boudreau on December 5th, they could never imagine things going this well. They have gone 8-0-1 since the coaching change and have the best points percentage in the NHL. Boudreau has been one of the best regular season coaches in the salary cap era, but it's still highly surprising that he was able to turn around this team so quickly.

The biggest surprise is how well Vancouver has played defensively. They have allowed the fewest goals per game in the league since Boudreau became the coach. They rank top 10 in most defensive metrics and have Thatcher Demko playing well in net, who has the second-most goals saved above expected since December 5th.

The Florida Panthers will be a tough test for the Canucks tonight, as they are second in goals per game with 3.89. The Panthers have been playing some wacky games of late, which certainly has inflated the total a bit. Some of those games were against teams that were playing weak lineups due to COVID absences, including a 9-3 win against the Tampa Bay Lightning and a 5-2 win against a Montreal Canadiens team that had to be shut down immediately after the game because of so many players missing.

It will be difficult for the Canucks to completely shut down the Panthers, but they don't need to for the game to go under. It helps that Florida is likely to start Sergei Bobrovsky in net, who has been the better goalie between him and Spencer Knight by a wide margin and has been one of the better goalies in the league overall.

It might feel uncomfortable taking this under given that Florida games have gone over this total in their last six games, but if Vancouver keeps playing like this defensively, they can buck that trend. We should also see the Panthers play better defensively than they have in the past six games. Even if we see this game finish something like 4-2 Florida, we'll be able to cash on this bet.