NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 11/23/21
The normal schedule is a bit flipped this week, so we only have three games on a Tuesday that's normally busy. Let's see what bets we can make on this slate.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Philadelphia Flyers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Lightning Moneyline (-184) 4-Star Rating Out of 5
Lightning -1.5 (+146) 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The Tampa Bay Lightning have been rolling, going 7-1-2 over their last 10 games. They are playing like the dominant team we've seen win the last two Stanley Cups and are on track to at least have a chance at winning a third. They are looking like a good bet as favorites tonight.
While Tampa's offensive stars get a lot of the publicity and headlines, the defense is a huge strength. They've allowed the fourth-fewest shot attempts and third-fewest high danger chances on a per 60 minute basis. Andrei Vasilevskiy hasn't been at his best this season, but the room for improvement can be spun into a positive, as we know he has been one of the best goalies in the league in the last few years.
Tampa will face the Philadelphia Flyers tonight. The Flyers fall in the middle of the pack in the NHL with their .593 points percentage. However, they do have some concerning metrics. They allow the fifth-most shot attempts and third-most high danger chances per 60 minutes. Overall, they carry the second-worst expected goals percentage, ahead of only the lowly Arizona Coyotes.
Even though the Lightning are big favorites, our model says it's not big enough. The -184 line gives them an implied winning percentage of 64.8%, while our model says the real percentage is around 75%. If you're looking for a better return on your bet, you can take Tampa on the puck line and hope they can win by multiple goals. Given how they've been playing and the edge we think they have, this wouldn't be a huge surprise.
Chicago Blackhawks vs. Calgary Flames
Blackhawks +1.5 (-144) 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Blackhawks Moneyline (+195) 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The first month of the season couldn't have been much worse for the Chicago Blackhawks.
They made several offseason moves to try to compete this season and ended up having to fire coach Jeremy Colliton less than a month into the season. They have been playing better since then, winning five of six games under interim coach Derek King. They have a tough game tonight, but they have a chance to compete.
The Blackhawks will face the Calgary Flames, who have been highly impressive to start this season. They are 11-3-5 and have allowed the fewest goals per game in the league. They do seem bound for regression, though, as their leading scorer, Andrew Mangiapane, is shooting an unsustainable 31%. Overall, the Flames have the third-highest PDO in the league, which is to say they've been getting better save and shooting percentages than you would expect from a team.
Chicago should be able to stay in this game if they play like they have been under their new coach. This makes the puck line bet a pretty good one, and any overtime in this game would cash this bet. If you're really feeling frisky, you could go for the moneyline, as our model gives this a two-star rating.
