NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 11/17/21
It was an underdog kind of night in the NHL last night, with six dogs cashing, including the Buffalo Sabres and Arizona Coyotes as substantive longshots. We're expecting a reversal on that trend tonight and outline a pair of favorites in today's NHL Betting Guide.
Here are the plays from our projections!
Vancouver Canucks vs. Colorado Avalanche
Avalanche moneyline (-156): 1-Star Rating out of 5
The Vancouver Canucks are sliding, and there's no end in sight. Vancouver has lost 4 in a row and 8 of their past 10, and they have worsening metrics over their recent outings. That makes tonight's matchup against the Colorado Avalanche a tough hill to climb.
The Canucks have abandoned all defensive structure, giving up 10 or more high-danger chances and 30 or more scoring opportunities in four straight games. As expected, goals-against have ballooned, going up to 22 over their past four games. Those defensive inefficiencies will let the Canucks down against a solid Avalanche offense.
The Avs are in the middle of an offensive resurgence. Colorado has scored 4 or more goals in five of their past six games, including 13 over their last two. Their shooting percentage has skyrocketed to 13.0% over their six-game sample, and they have strong production metrics propping them up. The Avs have attempted 11 or more high-danger and 32 scoring chances in three of their past four outings.
The Canucks have looked bad recently, and they don't have the firepower to compete with the Avs on Wednesday night. Colorado's implied value in the betting market is less than our projections, leaving an edge in backing them tonight. Avalanche moneyline is a 1-star play.
Los Angeles Kings vs. Washington Capitals
Capitals moneyline (-122): 1-Star Rating out of 5
The Los Angeles Kings concluded a four-game road trip through Canada with an impressive 3-0-1 record. However, there are concerning underlying metrics which suggest that the Kings are regression candidates. That correction should start tonight against a feisty Washington Capitals team.
LA concluded their road trip by getting outplayed at five-on-five in all four games. That makes it 6 straight games and 8 of the past 10 in which the Kings have been outplayed. Defense has been particularly concerning for the Kings, as they gave up 12 or more high-danger chances at five-on-five and 17 across all strengths in three of their previous four games. The Caps will bury the Kings with that type of blown coverage.
Washington has seen a recent uptick in output over their recent stretch, scoring four or more goals in three of their past five. The Caps have production metrics to support sustained production with the team going north of 10 high-danger chances in 13 of their past 14 games. Those metrics have helped the Caps post an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% in 9 of their past 10, although they have only five wins to show for their efforts.
We're expecting progression from the Caps and regression from the Kings tonight, which leaves an advantage in backing Washington on the moneyline. We rate it was a 1-star play, per our projections.
