NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 11/10/21
Overtimes and underdogs were all the rage on the Tuesday schedule. Eight plus-money underdogs cashed, while five of the 10 games were sorted out in overtime or a shootout. Altogether, it was a profitable night in the NHL and we'll be hoping for more of the same tonight.
Here are a couple of wagers from our daily projections.
Philadelphia Flyers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Maple Leafs (-137): 1-Star Rating out of 5
It's evident that defense is at the bottom of the Philadelphia Flyers' priority list. That could pose a problem on Wednesday night against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Flyers' defense has been porous lately, giving up 10 or more high-danger and 26 or more shots at five-on-five in three of their past four games. Their metrics have been even more terrible across all strengths; opponents are averaging 15.3 high-danger and 30.1 scoring chances over their past four games.
Despite the questionable metrics, the Flyers are 2-1-1 over the span and have given up more than three goals just once. Regression is going to hit the Flyers hard over the coming games.
The Maple Leafs are positioned on the opposite end of the spectrum and are underachieving offensively despite some gaudy offensive metrics. Toronto is averaging 40.5 scoring and 15.8 high-danger chances over their past five games. They have yet to break through, but a matchup with the Flyers could be what's needed to get over the hump.
These teams are positioned on opposite ends of the progression/regression spectrum. Based on our projections, there's an advantage in taking the Leafs outright. We rate it as a one-star play.
Arizona Coyotes vs. Minnesota Wild
Coyotes +1.5 (-148): 5-Star Rating Out of 5
Coyotes (+188): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
The Minnesota Wild kick off a three-game in four-night span against the Arizona Coyotes on Wednesday. The Wild are substantive favorites in the betting market -- creating an edge in backing the home team.
The Wild have been less effective on the road than at home this season. Minnesota has been outplayed in three of five road games this season; they've surrendered an average of 11.2 high-danger chances per game. Opponents have also been effective at creating scoring chances and shots by going north of 30 in four of their past five road games.
Minnesota's last line of defense falls on Kaapo Kahkonen's shoulders as the Wild reserve Cam Talbot for the second night. However, Kahkonen's 86.0% save percentage doesn't inspire much confidence.
The Yotes haven't been great this season, but they've been much better on home ice. The Coyotes have posted expected goals-for percentages above 50.0% in two of four games, securing their first win of the season last time out.
The Wild's chances are not as good as their betting price implies. Based on our projections, the Yotes have a 52.5% chance of winning -- substantially better than the implied probability of +188 (34.7%). It's on that basis that the Coyotes puckline and moneyline plays are rated as five and three-star plays, respectively.
