NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 11/3/21
It was quite the night in the NHL on Tuesday, with four teams posting shutouts and four other games going to overtime or a shootout. We'll be hoping for similar entertainment levels from tonight's four-game slate, featuring two road favorites and two home favorites.
These are a couple of plays from our daily projections!
Los Angeles Kings vs. St. Louis Blues
Kings Moneyline (+118): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The Los Angeles Kings and St. Louis Blues meet for the third time in less than two weeks tonight in LA. The Blues took both previous matchups, but the Kings can use home ice advantage to secure their third straight win.
The Kings have been convincing in each of their past two wins, putting up expected goals-for percentages above 53.6% at five-on-five. Their metrics across all strengths were even more dominant, as the Kings out-chanced their opponents 75-48 in scoring chances and 32-21 in high-danger chances.
That offensive onslaught could be hard for the Blues to stop, as they've allowed 33 or more scoring chances in five of seven games this season and 10 or more high-danger chances in all seven games. On average, the Blues give up 31.4 scoring and 13.0 high-danger chances per game, ranking among the worst defensive teams in the Chel.
St. Louis is also outperforming their advanced metrics. The Blues have been outplayed at five-on-five in five of their seven games this season, posting the 25th-ranked expected goals-for percentage. However, the Blues have been victorious in six of seven games this season. The 2019 Stanley Cup champions are regression candidates as their metrics balance out with outcomes.
Based on our projections, the Kings should be favored in tonight's contest, but the betting market favors the Blues. It's on that basis that backing the Kings to win is rated as a two-star play.
Chicago Blackhawks vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Blackhawks +1.5 (-205): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Blackhawks Moneyline (+126): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The Carolina Hurricanes are the last remaining undefeated team in the NHL. The Canes have used a potent attack and outstanding goaltending from Frederik Andersen to elevate themselves in the standings, but Andersen could be poised for regression over the coming games.
Andersen's metrics are above nearly every other goalie this season. The Danish netminder is stopping 95.6% of shots, including 88.6% of high-danger chances at even strength and 92.3% of power-play shots. His percentages are above-average across the board and will eventually start to regress towards career norms.
The Canes are also overachieving relative to their offensive metrics though. Carolina is above expected goals-for at five-on-five and across all strengths, thanks in part to their third-ranked 12.1% shooting percentage. In combination with their league-leading save percentage, Carolina has the best PDO in the league. Although impressive, it's another indicator that the Canes are due for regression.
The Hawks are on the other side of the regression spectrum. Chicago is underachieving relative to production metrics and is starting to progress. The Hawks have posted above-average shooting percentages in two of three games and above-average save percentages in three of four. More wins will follow their improved play.
According to our projections, this game is more of a coin-flip proposition, as the Hawks have a 49.7% chance of winning. That leaves an edge in backing them on the moneyline and puckline, which we rate as one- and three-star plays, respectively.
