NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 10/27/21

Tyler Bertuzzi leads the Red Wings with nine points through five games. Can he help them keep things close against the Capitals?

We have another five-game slate to look forward to in tonight's NHL action and some highly-rated plays from our projections. Visitors had a field day on Tuesday, taking five of the seven matchups and winning by two or more goals in three of them. It's a trend worth monitoring as the week progresses.

Here are the plays we're looking at tonight!

Washington Capitals vs. Detroit Red Wings

Red Wings +1.5 (-128): 3-Star Rating Out of 5

The Detroit Red Wings have been competitive to start the season, but they'll face their stiffest test yet as they travel to take on the Washington Capitals.

Through six games, the Red Wings are 3-2-1, getting strong offensive production and above-average goaltending. The Wings have put up 33 or more shots and 10 or more high-danger chances in three of their past four. Detroit's goaltending has also been better than expected, posting a 91.4% save percentage or better in three of their past five.

They'll have plenty of opportunities against the Capitals' questionable defensive zone coverage. Opponents have attempted 11 or more high-danger chances in four of their past five, giving up an average of 13.8 per game. Possession also isn't an emphasis for the Caps, as they have the 12th-ranked Corsi rating at 51.5% and have out-shot their opponents by a narrow margin to start the season.

This game will be closer than the betting market implies. The Capitals don't emphasize defensive structure, and the Red Wings have been effective at generating offense.

It's a short price backing the Red Wings to cover the puckline, and it's rated as a 3-star play, per our projections.

Dallas Stars vs. Vegas Golden Knights

Golden Knights +1.5 (-225): 5-Star Rating Out of 5

The Vegas Golden Knights come into tonight's contest on the second night of a back-to-back, looking to build momentum off their win over the Colorado Avalanche last night. They'll have to crack the Dallas Stars' defensive shell if they hope to make it consecutive victories.

The Stars aren't a team to push the pace offensively, instead relying on defensive structure to limit chances against. It's working so far this season, as the Stars are giving up just 20.5 scoring and 7.3 high-danger chances at five-on-five.

The problem is that it also doesn't allow for strong offensive showings because the Stars attempt a paltry 17.2 scoring and 6.3 high-danger opportunities per game. Consequently, the Stars have negative relative production metrics leading to the fifth-worst expected goals-for percentage in the league.

The Stars have three wins this season, all of which have come in overtime or a shootout. They don't go out with a plan on winning -- they go out with a plan on not losing.

That leaves a significant edge in backing the Golden Knights tonight, the biggest of which is backing Vegas on the puckline, which we rate as a 5-star play, per our projections.