NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 10/26/21
We went 2-0-1 in the Monday betting guide, so let's keep up that streak on Tuesday's seven-game slate.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Minnesota Wild vs. Vancouver Canucks
Wild moneyline (-118) 1-Star Rating out of 5
On Sunday, the Minnesota Wild hit a bump in the road from their strong start to the season, taking a 6-3 loss. They had started out the year winning the first four games of the season, carrying the momentum that they had built up last campaign. They have a great chance of getting back on track on Tuesday night.
The Wild's four-game winning streak was backed up by strong underlying numbers. They have the best adjusted expected goals (xG) percentage at five-on-five in the league, sitting at 59.8%. They have been known as a defensive team, but early in the season, their offense has been humming. They are averaging the most shots on goal per game in the NHL. Tonight, they'll face a team whose analytical profile leaves something to be desired.
The Wild get the Vancouver Canucks on the road in this game. The Canucks have won two games in a row but haven't been too impressive in doing so. They lost the expected goals battle in each game and have the fourth-worst adjusted xG%.
Minnesota should win this game, even on the road, making the -118 moneyline an acceptable price to take on Minnesota tonight. The -118 line implies win odds of 54.1%, but we have the Wild coming out on top 57.2% of the time.
Calgary Flames vs. New Jersey Devils
Devils moneyline (-122) 2-Star Rating out of 5
Perhaps the team that improved the most this offseason was the New Jersey Devils. Several new additions plus the development of young talent made them a trendy pick as a playoff contender after they've missed the playoffs for eight of the last nine years. They're off to a decent start and have a good shot in their game tonight.
The Devils did a revamp of their defense this offseason, which was much needed. Dougie Hamilton and Ryan Graves form a new first pair that could be considered one of the best in the league. Hamilton is one of the league's best play drivers, and it has shown up early in his time in New Jersey. The Devils have created the most expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five in the league, coming in ahead of the likes of the Toronto Maple Leafs, Carolina Hurricanes, and Florida Panthers. Those are some elite offenses, yet the Devils still rank better than them.
New Jersey plays host to the Calgary Flames, who have been pretty good to start the season. This is not a great spot for them, however, as they are coming off a game last night. They'll likely turn to backup goaltender Dan Vladar, who is a big downgrade from starter Jacob Markstrom. The Devils will come into the game well-rested, having not played since Saturday.
New Jersey's only loss came in a tough game against the Washington Capitals. With their new additions and the rest advantage, the Devils should be able to get the win tonight. Our model gives them a 62.3% chance to win, and with the -122 line implying 55.0% win odds, there's definitely value on betting the Devils.
