NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 10/19/21
We've got a huge 11-game slate on Tuesday, so there should be some value in the betting market in a few spots.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Many people were pessimistic about the Pittsburgh Penguins headed into the start of the season. They were going to be without their two star centers, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, for at least the first week of the season. That has proven to not be an issue in their first three games, and their solid play should continue in this matchup.
The Penguins are at home against the Dallas Stars, who are not off to a great start to the year. Dallas has won just one of their first three games -- an overtime win against the New York Rangers in which they only had 43% of the shot attempts. Now, John Klingberg is out of the lineup due to injury and Jason Robertson continues to miss the start of the season. Put simply, the Stars are starting to feel like the injury-riddled disappointing team that they were last season.
Pittsburgh has dominated all three games, recording more expected goals than their opponents in every game thus far. Their adjusted five-on-five expected goal rate sits at 62.74%, the sixth-best mark in the league. They should control the chances against Dallas tonight, and it should be enough to get the win.
Our model really likes the Penguins tonight, and the numbers from the first three games from each team back that up. The four-star rating makes it one of the best bets on the board tonight.
Buffalo (+136): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Buffalo +1.5 (-200): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
There are certain teams that you bet in sports that are called "hold your nose" bets. It occurs when you know the team stinks, but there are few reasons to like them that make you want to bet it. The Buffalo Sabres will likely require you to hold your nose if you are wagering on them this season.
It is a bit harsh to the Sabres, considering how they've performed so far to start the season. They beat up on the Montreal Canadiens 5-1 in their season opener, and thoroughly outplayed the Arizona Coyotes before winning in a shootout. They showed improvement after Don Granato took over in the middle of March last season, and that improvement has continued into the season.
Buffalo will play at home against Vancouver, who hasn't exactly been strong to start the season. They have one win -- a shootout win against the Philadelphia Flyers in which they blew a 4-2 lead in the third period. Their defensive group on paper looks worse than last season, and they allowed the most expected goals per 60 minutes a year ago.
The Sabres have shown enough to think that they will keep the game close, making the puck line a solid bet tonight. If you're feeling frisky, you can bet the moneyline, as our model is showing value on that bet as well. Buffalo has been known to start the season well and then completely fall off a cliff, so this might be the perfect time to back them.