We are down to two best-of-three series as both semifinal matchups are tied at two games apiece. Game 5 between the New York Islanders and Tampa Bay Lightning goes to Tampa, and the betting market is overvaluing the Lightning's chances again tonight.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New York Islanders
Islanders moneyline (+156): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Islanders +1.5 (-184): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The outcomes in this series don't accurately reflect the effort that the Islanders have put forth. The Islanders have outplayed the Lightning at five-on-five in every game this series, compiling a cumulative expected goals-for percentage of 56.2%.
New York's structured play in their defensive end has been critical to limiting the Lightning's chances. Tampa has been held to eight of fewer high-danger chances at five-on-five in every game. Expect that trend to keep up as the Islanders continue to limit the Lightning's chances in the attacking zone.
Tampa's offensive struggles aren't limited to this series, though, as the Lightning continue to get outplayed at home. The Bolts have posted an expected goals-for percentage below 50.0% in four of seven home playoff games thanks to being limited to eight or fewer high-danger chances at five-on-five in five of seven home games and getting out-possessed in four of seven. Somehow, the Lightning have 10 wins, despite the metrics continually working against them.
The Lightning's metrics are not compatible with the outcomes they are achieving, and that has caused their PDO to inflate to a playoff-leading 1.038. This metric reflects increased save and shooting percentages, which have climbed beyond sustainable levels. Tampa can't continue to get outplayed and walk away victorious.
The betting market has overreacted to the Lightning's chances of winning Game 5, with Tampa currently priced as -186 chalk, which carries a 65.0% implied probability. In reconciling the line information with our projections, there's an implied advantage in backing the Islanders on the puckline and moneyline. Both wagers are rated as one-star plays.