NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 6/3/21
Road teams have been on a roll, winning four of the past five games. There is one road favorite and one road underdog on tonight's NHL betting board; What do our projections say about each team's chances?
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New York Islanders vs. Boston Bruins
Islanders moneyline (+120): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The New York Islanders split the first two games of their second-round matchup against the Boston Bruins, meaning they have effectively stolen home-ice advantage against their East Division counterparts. Now the series shifts back to Long Island, where the Islanders have been better this postseason.
The Islanders have posted an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% across all strengths in two of their three home games this postseason, compared to getting outplayed in three of five on the road. The biggest difference is in their offensive metrics. New York is attempting 18.6 scoring chances and 7.3 high-danger chances per 60 minutes on the road, compared to 29.3 and 13.7, respectively, at home.
There are also modest improvements in their defensive metrics, though. The Islanders have limited their opponents to 29.7 scoring chances and 9.7 high-danger chances per 60 minutes at home, compared to 31.5 and 9.9 on the road. That will be key to limiting the Bruins' attack, which hasn't been great on the road this postseason.
The Bruins have been held to 21 or fewer shots, 20 or fewer scoring chances, and eight or fewer high-danger chances at five-on-five in two of three road games. The Bruins are overachieving offensively by scoring on 11.4% of shots at five-on-five. Expect output to tumble as Boston's road production metrics continue to suffer.
New York has scored at least four goals in all three playoff home games. That production level will be hard for the Bruins to match as B's output is anticipated to fall over their coming road games. That leaves an edge in backing the Islanders as home 'dogs. We rate it as a one-star play, per our projections.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Hurricanes moneyline (+142): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The Carolina Hurricanes have an uphill battle in their second-round series against the Tampa Bay Lightning as the Canes try to climb out of the 2-0 hole they find themselves in. The deficit is not a result of a lack of performance, though, as the advanced metrics support that the Canes have been the better team.
The Canes have posted a cumulative expected goals-for percentage of 63.9% across all strengths through the first two games of the series, outplaying the Lightning in both games. That makes seven of eight games this postseason in which Carolina has objectively outplayed their opponents. Carolina has had some tough luck in the early going, which is reflected in their .994 PDO. In reconciling the Canes' advanced metrics, they are due for positive regression.
Tampa is on the opposite end of the regression spectrum. The Lightning have been outplayed in seven of eight games in these playoffs but have won six of those games thanks to their outstanding shooting and save percentages. The Bolts have the second-highest PDO this postseason as their offense and Andrei Vasilevskiy are both operating above expected levels.
The Lightning are on a crash course for correction, while the Hurricanes should start heading the other way. That leaves an advantage in backing the Canes tonight. That edge is reflected in our projections. We rate the Hurricanes moneyline as a one-star play.
