NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 6/1/21
The Montreal Canadiens completed their 3-1 series comeback against the Toronto Maple Leafs last night and all matchups in the second round have been set. The Habs get things started with the Winnipeg Jets tomorrow night, leaving us with only one game on the docket tonight.
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Carolina Hurricanes vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Hurricanes Moneyline (-108): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Under 5.5 (-122): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The Carolina Hurricanes dropped Game 1 to the Tampa Bay Lightning and need to avoid going down 2-0 to the Bolts before the series shifts to Tampa for Games 3 and 4. The advanced metrics support that Game 2 is theirs to lose.
The Canes have been outstanding at five-on-five and even better across all strengths. Carolina has outplayed their opponents at five-on-five in all seven games, posting a cumulative expected goals-for percentage of 55.9%. That metric jumps to 57.3% when we consider their game scores across all strengths.
Carolina asserted themselves as the dominant team in Game 1, out-possessing and out-shooting the Lightning and posting a 59.3% expected goals-for percentage across all strengths. That game was the third time over their last five that they posted an in-game PDO below 1.000, despite outplaying their opponents in every game. The Canes offense should continue to progress and is due for some puck-luck.
While the Canes are due for a few good bounces, the Lightning may have exhausted theirs. Tampa is skating around with a bloated 1.052 PO thanks to inflated shooting and save percentages. Their percentages are above their regular season totals while their advanced metrics support that they are out-matched this postseason.
The Bolts continue to overachieve while getting outplayed. Tampa has posted an expected goals-for percentage below 50.0% across all strengths in six of seven games. They have been out-shot in every game since Game 1 of the opening round against the Florida Panthers and have yet to post a Corsi rating above 50.0%. The Lightning are due for regression.
Carolina's chances of winning are greater than the betting market implies. It's on that basis that backing them on the moneyline is a one-star play. There's also an edge in taking the under as the Bolts' offense is due for regression, which should limit their output over the coming games. The under is also rated as a one-star play, as per our projections.
