NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 5/19/21
The North Division playoffs finally gets started tonight when the Edmonton Oilers host the Winnipeg Jets for Game 1. They join three other series already underway on the Wednesday NHL docket.
Here are a couple of plays from our daily projections!
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Colorado Avalanche vs. St. Louis Blues
Blues +1.5 (+105): 3-Star Rating out of 5
It wasn't the start the St. Louis Blues were hoping for, but they can use Game 2 as an opportunity to even their series up with the Colorado Avalanche. The Blues dropped a 4-1 decision in Game 1, getting outplayed at five-on-five and across all strengths, but we should see a better effort from them tonight.
The Blues' strength is playing a defensive brand of hockey. They've been less consistent with it this season, but at times they have flashed the defensive structure that helped them win the Stanley Cup two seasons ago. For the Blues to be successful against the Avs, they will need to bring their best defensive effort tonight.
Colorado had their way in Game 1, attempting 50 shots, 44 scoring opportunities, and 16 high-danger chances across all strengths. Although impressive, it's unlikely they replicate those numbers in Game 2. The 50 shots were the second-highest total of the season, and the 44 scoring chances were the third-highest production in game, making a fall back down towards average inevitable.
PDO also suggests that the Avs are treading in unsustainable waters. The Avs have put up a 1.084 PDO over their last four games, bringing their season average above 1.000. The Avs have been great, but they can't continue to produce at these levels.
We're anticipating a better defensive effort from the Blues tonight, which should lead to a tighter checking game, making it hard for the Avs to pull away. That aligns with our projections, which rate the Blues +1.5 as a three-star play.
Edmonton Oilers vs. Winnipeg Jets
Under 5.5 (-102): 1-Star Rating out of 5
Playoff hockey returns to the site of the 2020 NHL Playoff Bubble when the Oilers host the Jets tonight. The Oilers earned a reputation for scoring this season but based on our projections, the advantage tonight is on the under.
Dave Tippett system starts in the defensive end, and that's been reflected in the Oilers recent game scores. Edmonton has limited four of their last six opponents to five or fewer high-danger chances at five-on-five and 22 or fewer scoring opportunities in five of six.
But defensive metrics aren't the only statistic that is decreasing, as the Oilers' offensive metrics are off their early-season pace. Edmonton has attempted nine or fewer high-danger attempts in four of six and 19 or fewer scoring chances in three straight at five-on-five. Those metrics jump with the man-advantage, which provides the blueprint for knocking off the Oilers.
The key to beating Oilers is not giving Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl room to operate with the man-advantage. The Oilers have scored seven power-play goals over their last six games thanks to 4.8 shots and 4.2 scoring opportunities per game. Expect a disciplined effort from the Jets tonight as they look to avoid the perils of the Edmonton power play.
We're also seeing improved defensive structure from the Jets over their recent sample. Winnipeg has limited their opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances and 22 or fewer scoring opportunities at five-on-five in five of their last six games. That is the standard that they need to maintain against the Oilers.
In reconciling our projections with the betting market, there's an advantage in taking the under 5.5 in tonight's North Division battle. That aligns with our analysis, which suggests that defense will be a priority tonight.
