NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 4/28/21
There are seven more games to look forward to tonight on the frozen pond. After an East Coast-heavy Tuesday night, four of the games tonight have a start time of 9:00 pm ET or later, which is where we are focusing our attention in today's betting guide. Take note of the early start time in Ottawa when the Ottawa Senators take on the Vancouver Canucks, with puck drop scheduled for 5:30 pm ET.
Here are a few plays from our daily projections!
Over 5.5 (-110): 1-Star Rating out of 5
Blues +1.5 (-210): 1-Star Rating out of 5
The Minnesota Wild are running incredibly hot these days, scoring at least four goals in six of their last seven games. We're expecting that high-scoring trend to continue in tonight's game against the St. Louis Blues.
Minnesota is averaging 4.6 goals per game over their recent seven-game sample, thanks to a 19.4% shooting percentage. The concerning part is that throughout this sample, the Wild have seen a dip in production metrics, as they are attempting only 7.7 high-danger chances and 20.3 scoring opportunities per game across all strengths. Although the Wild are overachieving relative to production, they should still be able to muster a few goals against the Blues and their 24th-ranked save percentage.
The Blues are increasing their offensive output thanks to some efficient efforts as well, though, scoring nine goals over their last two games. This has been a familiar trend for the Blues, as they have scored three or more goals in six of their last eight games. Similar to the Wild, their shooting percentage over their recent sample is also through the roof, as the Blues are scoring on 15.0% of shots over that recent sample.
These teams are firing on all cylinders and come in with some pretty impressive offensive metrics, which should help this one go over the total. Minnesota is due for a correction, though, and should come plummeting back down to earth after putting up a 1.124 PDO over their last seven games. It's also worth noting that the Blues have covered the +1.5 puckline in three straight games.
We're betting on that trend to continue. Over 5.5 and Blues +1.5 are one-star plays, as per our projections.
Ducks Moneyline (+142): 1-Star Rating out of 5
The Anaheim Ducks' season will mercifully come to an end in a couple of weeks, but they will continue to present value in the betting market, which includes tonight when they take on the Los Angeles Kings.
The Kings were knocking on the West Division playoff door at the start of the month, but they've squandered a home-friendly month and now need the stars to align just right to get a postseason berth. LA has gone 3-9-0 in the month of April, including 2-8-0 on home ice. Now, they sit six points back of the final playoff spot and would need to leapfrog three teams to get there.
Los Angeles has seen their stock fall this month; across all strengths, they have posted an expected goals-for percentage below 50.0% in all but four of their games. In that time, their actual goals-for percentage has fallen down to expected levels, which means what we're seeing from the Kings is what we should continue to expect.
The Ducks' offense is finding their rhythm to end the season. They have attempted 11 or more high-danger chances in five of their last eight games, while out-possessing their opponents on four occasions. That might not seem like much, but for a team that is 25th in the league in Corsi rating and 29th in high-danger percentage, their recent game scores reflect an improved effort.
Output has fallen off for the Ducks, as they have scored a combined five goals over their last five games. We should expect them to improve on their laughable 4.1% shooting percentage over that five-game sample.
Based on our projections, there's an advantage in backing the Ducks tonight. Their actual chances of winning are greater than the implied probability of their +142 moneyline price. That makes backing them to win a one-star play.