NHL Betting Guide: Friday 3/26/21
We're looking at a light Friday night schedule on the NHL slate with only four games scheduled, two of which are West Coast games, which means that it is going to be a late night for the NHL's eastern board viewers.
Here are a couple of plays from our daily projections!
Jets moneyline (+108): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Jets +1.5 (-245): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
The Winnipeg Jets are carrying the momentum of two straight victories into their encounter with the Calgary Flames. The Jets relied on Connor Hellebuyck to dispatch the Vancouver Canucks in both games. We're expecting more of the same against a weaker offensive Flames team.
Hellebuyck was dominant stopping 60 of 61 shots against Vancouver. The Jets' defensive metrics were much better in the first game, but even with the Nucks managing 39 shots, 35 scoring chances, and 17 high-danger opportunities, Hellebuyck was up to the challenge.
The Jets likely won't face the same type of barrage against the Flames, who have adapted the defense-first mentality with Sutter back behind the bench. Calgary has attempted more than 10 high-danger chances and more than 30 scoring chances just twice since Sutter took over. On average, their offensive opportunities are down to 8.3 high-danger chances and 25.1 scoring chances since the coaching change.
Calgary's offensive output is tanking with their metrics, and it's unlikely they'll be successful in righting the ship against Hellebuyck.
According to our projections, the Jets should be favored as our algorithm gives them a 59.7% chance of winning. Taking Winnipeg on the moneyline is a three-star play; if they win as underdogs, they'll also cover the puckline, which is rated as a four-star play.
Over 5.5 (-112): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Anaheim has struggled with limiting goals against since John Gibson went down with a lower-body injury. In six games since then, opponents are averaging an average of 3.8 goals, and Ryan Miller is stopping only 86.6% of shots.
The Blues have had a very liberal standard for allowing goals recently, as well. Opponents have scored at least three goals in six of the Blues' last nine games and are averaging 3.4 during that span. As expected, the Blues' team save percentage has dropped to 87.7% during the nine-game span.
Goaltending issues have been a persistent issue for both teams this season. The Blues rank 27th in the league with an 89.3% save percentage, which is slightly above the Ducks, who rank 29th and stop 88.6% of shots.
With suspect goaltending for each side, we're taking the over in St. Louis as these teams should easily find a way to put in a few goals. That aligns with our projections, which rate over 5.5 as a three-star play.