NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Thursday 3/25/21
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com or DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in to take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Vitek Vanecek ($7,900): The Washington Capitals are large -215 home favorites versus the New Jersey Devils tonight, making Vanecek a great cash game option. Vanecek is confirmed as the starter tonight, and given how large of a favorite he is, it's a bit surprising to see he is only $7,900. This combination should make him a popular option in all formats tonight.
This isn't a surprise because the Devils are only scoring 2.22 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the 11th lowest in the league. Vanecek comes in with six wins in his last seven games, allowing a total of 10 goals in those six wins. He is in the zone and primed to repeat that production tonight.
High-Priced Skaters
Mitchell Marner ($7,400): The Toronto Maple Leafs have a slate-high 4.07 implied goal total, and it'd be silly to not have exposure to them tonight. Anytime a goal total is over 4.00, it should stand out because we don't see them this high very often. Add this to the fact the Ottawa Senators are allowing the most (3.32) goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, along with holding the second-worst (58.74) Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed). When the Senators are on the slate, you stack against them. That is the number one rule in NHL DFS.
This brings us to Marner, who is on the first forward line and the first power-play for the Leafs, which could end up as one of the chalkiest stacks on the slate. Marner, as usual, has been posting plenty of big numbers, with 8 NHL points, 32 shots on goal, and 12 blocked shots in his last 10 games.
Mika Zibanejad ($7,300): The Philadelphia Flyers are struggling on defense this season, allowing the second-most (3.31) goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. I'm surprised by that considering how consistent they were on defense last season, but they have taken a serious step back. The New York Rangers are holding the fifth-highest (3.37) implied goal total tonight and are a team that may not be as popular as some of the heavy home favorites.
You can confidently look to Zibanejad, who has 12 points and 34 shots on goal in his last 10 games. He skates on the first forward line and the first power-play for the Rangers, both of which are worth stacking. The Flyers have the seventh-worst (74.5%) penalty kill in the league. If the Flyers are the second-worst team in the league when it comes to goals allowed in five-on-five situations, you can imagine they are worth stacking against via their opponent's power-play unit, so that means going to Zibanejgad tonight.
Value Skaters
Alex Galchenyuk ($3,000): Galchenyuk is the minimum salary tonight, and that is the best thing he has going for himself. He comes in with 1 NHL point and 13 shots on goal in his last 10 games, which is modest if we are putting it nicely. However, as noted above, the Maple Leafs have a slate-high 4.07 implied total and are taking on a Senators team with the worst defense in the league. Galchenyuk is skating on the second forward line for the Maple Leafs, which is the second-best thing he has going for him. We don't normally see a player with this salary who has this offensive role.
Martin Necas ($4,600): The Columbus Blue Jackets are in the bottom 10 of the league in both goals allowed and Corsi Against per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. They present a solid floor and ceiling every night, almost regardless of who they are playing. You can pay up for studs, you can look for value, or you can look to stack against the Blue Jackets. Tonight, we want to look for some value via Necas, who is on the first forward line and the first power-play unit for the Carolina Hurricanes. They come in with a slightly underrated 3.02 implied goal total, which they can easily exceed.
