NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Wednesday 3/24/21
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com or DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in to take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Tristan Jarry ($8,200): The Pittsburgh Penguins are massive -270 home favorites tonight, and that makes Jarry the clear option in all formats tonight. We have a small three-game slate tonight and spending up for Jarry should be the clear priority in net. He is at home and taking the Buffalo Sabres, who are only scoring 1.54 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the lowest in the league. They are factually the worst offensive team in the league and shouldn't be too much of an issue for Jarry tonight.
He comes in with three wins in his last five games while allowing two or fewer goals in four of these games. The defense has been there, and he just needs a bit more offensive support to pick up the wins.
Jake Guentzel ($7,500): With a strong 3.32 implied goal total, the Penguins are going to be the chalk of tonight's slate. This should the case for two reasons: there are only three games on the slate, and they are taking on the lowly Sabres. This season, the Sabres are allowing the third-most (2.88) goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. When the Sabres are on the slate, you simply stack against them and watch the fantasy points pile up.
That is what we should be seeing from Guentzel, who skates on the first forward line and the first power-play unit, giving him 100% ice-time correlation with Sidney Crosby. This has helped Guentzel rack up 11 NHL points and 32 shots on goal over his last 10 games. You should expect Guentzel to add at least one NHL point and multiple shots to that total tonight.
Blake Wheeler ($5,800): The Winnipeg Jets have a slate-high 3.47 implied goal total tonight, and you absolutely want some exposure to their top line. Wheel skates on the top forward line, which is fully correlated onto the first power-play unit. This gives you maximum upside, as the potential for double-dipping on points is huge. Points are exactly what the top line has been producing lately, with a combined 18 NHL points and 60 shots on goal over their last five games.
The Jets are up against the Vancouver Canucks, who are in the bottom six of the league in both goals allowed per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations and Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed). This is a smash spot for them, and they are also likely to be very chalky alongside the Penguins.
Nils Hoglander ($3,700): We need value on a small three-game slate, and this is where Hoglander comes into play. He is skating on the first forward line and the second forward line for the Cancuks, which makes him stick out. A player who is under $4,000 and seeing this type of offensive role is tough to find on an eight-game slate, let alone a small three-game slate. And it's not as if Hoglander is some random punt play. He comes in with 5 NHL points and 14 shots on goal over his last 10 games. He is producing enough given his salary and should help with roster construction tonight.
Sean Walker ($3,600): The Los Angeles Kings are very slight -102 road underdogs, and we could be in for a very close game against the San Jose Sharks. Are the Kings an amazing offensive team? No. Are the Sharks a bad defensive team? Yes. The Sharks are in the bottom four of the league in both goals allowed per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations and Corsi Against. We want to jump on the matchup more than the pure skill of the Kings' offense. This could lead you to searching for some value that is good from a point-per-dollar perspective and that is where Walker fits. He is on the second power-play unit and only has 3 NHL points in his last 10 games, but he has 16 shots on goal and 21 blocked shots in that time.