NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 3/16/21
Underdogs covering the +1.5 puckline was a popular trend last night. Of the nine 'dogs, seven of them kept it close enough to cash the 1.5 wagers. It's a five-game slate that we're digging into tonight!
Here are a couple of plays from our daily projections!
Detroit Red Wings vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Over 5.5 (-122): 1-Star Rating out of 5
The Carolina Hurricanes were able to knock the Detroit Red Wings off their pedestal last time out, winning 2-1. But the Red Wings were on an over trend that we're projecting to get back on track tonight.
Detroit had gone over in six of seven leading up to their most recent loss. Games weren't just getting over, either -- they were flying. Of the six games that went over, three had at least eight goals, and the other three saw seven goals in games with totals mostly set at 5.5. Detroit had reliably gone over the number.
High-scoring games suit the Hurricanes just fine. Carolina games have seen at least six goals in four of six. They been an over team throughout the season, with 56.5% of their games eclipsing the number.
From an advanced perspective, the Wings are tending upwards offensively. They managed above-average chances in five of their last eight, which is resulting in increased output. Detroit has scored three or more in four of of eight.
Offense has been one of the Canes' strengths all season as they rank among the league's best in offensive metrics.
Goals should slow more easily tonight. That aligns with our projections which rate the over 5.5 as a one-star play.
Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Stars Moneyline (+132): 1-Star Rating out of 5
The Dallas Stars will eventually exact revenge on the Tampa Bay Lightning for last year's Stanley Cup Finals, and based on our projections, that could be tonight.
Dallas was shut out in consecutive games against the Bolts the first time these teams met. Since then, the Stars have gone 3-2-2 and put up an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% in six of seven. The Stars are trending in the right direction and are playing like they have something to prove.
When these teams met last time, the Stars out-chanced the Bolts in high-danger chances 28-13 over the two games. Dallas also out-possessed Tampa in both games.
Tampa's chance of winning isn't as pronounced as the betting market implies. The analytics and our projections suggest that tonight is a good spot to back the Stars. They are due for a few more wins, and Tampa is in a tough spot, playing their fourth game in six nights and the second night of a back-to-back with travel. The Stars moneyline is a one-star play.
