NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 3/10/21
It's a Western-friendly Wednesday night in the Chell! We have five games on the docket, all of which feature teams of the former Western Conference. Home teams will be hoping to continue their 11-3-1 run since the start of the week.
Here are a few picks from our daily projections!
Vancouver Canucks vs. Montreal Canadiens
Canucks +1.5 (-194): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
Canucks moneyline (+132): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
For the fourth time in four games, the Vancouver Canucks will be underdogs on home ice. The first three games went better than expected with the Nucks claiming victory in all three games. Canucks' fans will be hoping for more of the same when they take on the Montreal Canadiens for the second time in three nights.
Thatcher Demko has been the difference-maker for the Canucks. Over his last five starts, he's stopped 96.3% of shots faced and posted a goals-against-average of 1.18. Demko's effort has propelled the Canucks to four victories over the five-game sample.
The Canucks' offense is becoming more efficient. Vancouver is scoring on 10.0% of their shots over their last five, and have been scoring more frequently by going over the season-long shooting percentage in six of their last 10.
Consequently, the Canucks have posted a PDO above 1.000 in four of their last five, but their season average of .992 remains below the 1.000 threshold, which suggests that further progression is looming.
The Habs' offense appears to be stuck in a rut that a coaching change could not remedy. Montreal has underachieved relative to their season-long averages in high-danger chances in four of their last six games. That has also resulted in below-average shooting percentages in four of six, with Montreal posting an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% in two of those games. Unless they find a way to increase production, the Canadiens will continue to struggle.
Vancouver is on a roll, thanks to Demko. Based on our projections, the Canucks have a 52.8% chance of winning tonight but are still priced as underdogs in the betting market. That implies that there is value in backing Vancouver on the puckline and on the moneyline, which we rate as four- and two-star plays, respectively.
Edmonton Oilers vs. Ottawa Senators
Oilers moneyline (-230): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Oilers -1.5 (+116): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The Edmonton Oilers will be looking to make it three straight victories when they face the Ottawa Senators Wednesday night.
The score from when these teams met on Monday implies that the game was closer than it was. Edmonton ended the game with a 3-2 win, but posted a 63.8% expected goals-for percentage, out-possessed the Sens, and out-shot them 37-28. Scoring chance and high-danger opportunities were even more lopsided with the Oilers holding a 39-31 advantage in scoring chances, and 16-11 advantage in high-danger chances.
Edmonton remains due for increased output as they have underachieved relative to their expected goals-for in four of their last five games. That could be trouble for the Sens who have the 31st-ranked save percentage on the road at 86.0%.
The Sens have also struggled with offense on the road. They have the 26th-ranked shooting percentage and 28th-ranked goals-per game as the visitor. There will be learning curves with a young team such as the Sens, and learning to win on the road is one of those lessons.
Wednesday night will also be the Sens third game in four nights, as they work to complete four games in six night span, with all of those contests coming on the road. Overall, this will be the Sens fifth straight road game and they only have one win so far.
Edmonton's advantage tonight is bigger than the betting market implies. That means there's value in taking the Oilers to win and cover the puckline as favorites. Those wagers are rated as two- and one-star plays, respectively, as per our modeling.
