3 Daily Fantasy NHL Stacks for 3/9/21
In daily fantasy hockey, stacking is a key strategy in tournaments. We want to correlate our lineups with up to four players to maximize our upside, as if one player on a line is scoring goals, it's likely that his linemates are getting assists as well. Ideally, we'll want players that will get a lot of ice time together on an even strength line and a power play line. Two good resources for line combinations are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceoff.com, so be sure to check those sites for up to date line information.
It's the last day of the NBA All Star break, which means it's the last day for these bloated prize pools in NHL. So let's make some big money with some stacks while we still can.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Canada's best team throughout the season has been the Toronto Maple Leafs. They hold a six-point lead at the top of the North Division. They've taken advantage of the teams in this division being fairly weak defensively across the board, as they average the second most goals per game in the league.
The Leafs get a great matchup again tonight, as they face the Winnipeg Jets. Winnipeg has struggled defensively again this season, and they are coming off allowing seven goals to the Montreal Canadiens on Saturday night. They give up the third most expected goals per game and the most high danger chances per game, according to Natural Stat Trick. The Leafs should be in a good position to get some goals.
Any Toronto discussion for fantasy purposes starts with Auston Matthews ($8,700). He's gone through a bit of a slump since having a wrist injury over the last two weeks, but he has 15 shots on goal in the three games since being back in the lineup. Having a chance to rest with no game since Saturday should help his outlook. Mitch Marner ($7,500) is tied at the hip to Matthews, which has worked out well for both of them. Marner is up to fourth in the NHL in points, helping to set up some of Matthews' league leading 18 goals. Joe Thornton ($4,600) is still the left wing for this line, but he no longer plays on the power play with them. A player who does see time with Matthews and Marner on the power play is Morgan Rielly ($5,300). He's sixth among defensemen in points and fifth in power-play points at the position, so he's a key component to the Leafs' league-leading power play.
Toronto has the second highest implied team total on this slate, currently sitting at 3.68 goals. They should be able to put up some goals in this juicy matchup against the Jets, and the players they rely on the most should be the ones who do the damage.
It's been a weird season for the Washington Capitals. They had the situation in January where the team's Russian players were all on the COVID list and couldn't play. Now they have to deal with a suspension to Tom Wilson, although that has happened quite a bit over the past few years. The good news for us fantasy players is that this caused them to go back to lines that are much more correlated and fantasy friendly.
We're usually looking for the line that has Alex Ovechkin ($8,100). Ovechkin has just eight goals this season, but he's picking up more assists than he normally does. He is still shooting the puck a ton, as he is wont to do, with the third highest shot attempt rate in the NHL. He's back with his old playmaking center Nicklas Backstrom ($6,500), who is quietly having a very solid year with 27 points in 24 games. He is a pass-first center and will look to set up Ovechkin when he can. The other member of this line is T.J. Oshie ($5,600), who isn't having a bad campaign himself despite moving around on different lines and having to play center for a period of time this season.
These three all play on the first power play, as well, and the matchup doesn't get any better for that. They'll face the New Jersey Devils, who have the league's worst penalty kill with just a 65.5% success rate this season. This means that teams facing the New Jersey penalty kill have scored on 34.5% of their power plays, which would be the best power-play success rate in the league. Washington's power play is ranked seventh on the season, so it's a great spot for them.
Defenseman John Carlson ($6,300) doesn't have the same crazy point totals he did last season, but he is still a huge part of the Caps' power play, as it's his job to get the puck to Ovechkin for his signature shot from the top of the faceoff circle.
Washington has the highest implied team total on this slate, and their fully correlated line stack makes them one of the night's top stacks.
Like Washington, the Dallas Stars' season has been anything but normal. They had to start the year late due to a COVID outbreak at training camp, had a few games postponed due to weather, and have had several injuries. Things aren't going too great for them in the standings, as their .475 point percentage is the third worst in the Central Division.
They do have a decent matchup tonight, and a line that we can stack. At age 36, Joe Pavelski ($7,200) has stepped up his game with the absence of Tyler Seguin. He has 23 points in 20 games and had 10 shots on goal in Sunday's game. Jamie Benn ($6,400) has points in three straight games and will be on Pavelski's wing at even strength and on the power play. The youngster on this line is Denis Gurianov ($4,600), who is finally getting his chance to use his talents. He loves to shoot the puck, as his shot attempt rate is 26th in the league, so playing more ice time on the top line should only increase his production.
The Stars will face the Chicago Blackhawks on Tuesday night. The Blackhawks have exceeded expectations of most hockey fans, as they were considered more likely to finish last than make the playoffs. However, there are some underlying numbers that suggest their success -- at least defensively -- could come back to Earth soon. They allow the most shots on goal and the third most scoring chances per 60 minutes. They only surrender the 16th most goals per game, so this must mean they are being propped up by goaltending. Their starting goaltender tonight, Malcolm Subban, has had seven good games after three seasons of being a below-average goaltender with the Vegas Golden Knights. This should mean the regression monster is headed his way.
Regression for a goaltender is something that could happen over time rather than right away, but the point is that the matchup with Chicago is one we should attack. The oddsmakers still think Dallas is a significantly better team than Chicago is, with the Stars being -146 favorites. Dallas' implied goal total is sitting just under three, and they will likely not be a super popular stack tonight, making them a good way to get contrarian in tournaments.
Nicholas Vazquez is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Nicholas Vazquez also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username hbyanksman. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.