NHL Betting Guide: Saturday 2/20/21
The NHL Outdoors makes headlines this weekend with a pair of games scheduled for the picturesque setting of Lake Tahoe. Today the Colorado Avalanche tangle with the Vegas Golden Knights and tomorrow the Philadelphia Flyers take on the Boston Bruins.
Here are wagers from our daily projections!
Blues moneyline (-190): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Blues -1.5 (+148): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 5.5 (-120): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
From an advanced perspective, the Blues dominated the first clash. They controlled possession and production metrics but needed a late third-period goal to force overtime before securing the victory. That falls in line with a successful run for the Blues as they have posted an expected goals-for percentage north of 50.0% in six straight.
The exact opposite is true for the Sharks as they have been outplayed in six of their last eight. Opponents are having their way with the Sharks and have at least 10 high-danger chances in all eight of those games games and are averaging 13.5 over that span.
The Blues should be able to dominate again but this time with a better outcome. The betting market doesn't properly reflect the Blues' chances in this one, making the Blues moneyline a three-star play and St. Louis on the puckline a two-star bet. We also get a short total with an offense that should breakout, so the over is a one-star wager, per our projections.
Blue Jackets moneyline (-132): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Blue Jackets 1.5 (+198): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Ryan Johansen is a difference-maker for the Nashville Predators. The Preds have been without Johansen for the last six games and have been struggling. They have created more than eight high-danger chances just once in that time and out-chanced their opponents in high-danger opportunities on just one occasion. Possession has also decreased. The Preds rank seventh in the league in Corsi percentage, but they have been out-possessed in three of those six games.
The Columbus Blue Jackets are finding their offensive identity post-Pierre-Luc Dubois. The Jackets have managed 31 or more shots and 12 or more high-danger chances in three of their last four. That has resulted in increased output as they have scored 14 goals over their last four outings. The Jackets' PDO is also below expected, which suggests that increased output should continue, especially when we consider their increased production.
The home-road dichotomy is also worth noting. The Jackets are 5-2-2 at home, compared to the Preds' 1-6-0 record as visitors.
Based on our projections, the Blue Jackets have a 63.1% chance of winning tonight. The betting market at FanDuel Sportsbook has them as -132 favorites, which carries a 56.9% implied probability. That leaves an advantage in backing the Jackets both on the moneyline and the puckline. We rate them as two- and one-star plays, respectively.