NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 2/16/21
We are back in action after the President's Day long weekend! Comebacks were the theme of the night last night, with four teams racing back from multi-goal deficits. Some comebacks (Ottawa Senators, Calgary Flames and Carolina Hurricanes) were more successful than others (Edmonton Oilers and Tampa Bay Lightning), but it led to an exciting night of hockey with some high-scoring games.
Here are a few plays from our betting model for tonight's action!
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Washington Capitals
Capitals moneyline (+114): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Capitals +1.5 (-240): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
When these teams met two days ago, the Washington Capitals outpaced the Pittsburgh Penguins in possession and scoring metrics but ended up losing 6-3. Their undoing was the 88.9% save percentage put up by Vitek Vanecek. It was Vanecek's fourth straight game of posting a below-average save percentage, and it was the second-straight game in which the Caps outplayed their opponents at five-on-five but failed to collect the win.
After starting the season off slowly, the Caps are starting to find their rhythm offensively. They have managed double-digit high-danger chances in three straight games for the first time all season and have posted their highest number of opportunities over their last two games. Their output matches their boost in production as they have scored seven goals over those two games.
That could spell trouble for the Penguins as defensive structure hasn't been their strong suit recently. Opponents are averaging 13.8 high-danger chances over the Pens' last five games. Through that span, the Pens are averaging 12.2 such opportunities themselves and have been out-chanced in three of those five contests.
There's an even greater cause for concern when we consider goaltending metrics. Pittsburgh has the worst save percentage in the NHL this season. Their season-high save percentage in a single game is 92.3% and, sadly, their 87.2% save percentage over the last six games has brought their season-long save percentage up to 86.8%.
The sky is the limit for the Capitals once they sort out their goaltending. The Caps' offense will keep them in any game, and as long as Vanecek can be somewhat competitive, tonight could be the night that their four-game losing streak comes to a halt. Backing the Capitals is the right position to be in based on our projections. The Penguins have a modest 50.8% chance of winning, but the +114 moneyline on the Capitals implies that the advantage lies in taking them to win. That is also reflected in the puckline, where we rate the Capitals +1.5 as a two-star play.
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Colorado Avalanche
Avalanche moneyline (-104): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Avalanche +1.5 (-295): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Under 5.5 (+110): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Even COVID-19 can't slow down the Colorado Avalanche. After missing 10 days and having five games postponed, the Avs returned to action on Sunday, and although they dropped the 1-0 decision to the Vegas Golden Knights, they once again dominated from an advanced metrics perspective.
At five-on-five, the Avs had a Corsi percentage of 57.0%, outshot the Golden Knights 29-20, and out-chanced them in scoring chances 24-22 but were held off the score sheet for the first time this season. Considering how the Avs have been able to dictate play, don't expect the Golden Knights to be able to limit Colorado in consecutive games.
One factor impacting the Golden Knights' success tonight is their schedule, as this will be their sixth game in 10 nights. It's been a successful run for Vegas, one in which they have gone 4-1-0, but there are a few cracks in their armor. Vegas posted a negative expected goals-for percentage in three of those five games. The concerning part is that those metrics came on home-ice against some of the league's bottom-feeders. They will be up backed against the wall now that Colorado has had a game to get their legs back underneath them.
Marc-Andre Fleury and Philipp Grubauer have been among the best goalies in the league this season, with both ranking in the top five in save percentage and top four in goals against average. Those metrics alone make the under 5.5 an appealing wager, particularly at plus-money. That advantage is also reflected in our model, as we rate the under as a one-star play.
