NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 2/10/21
It's a quiet night in the NHL tonight with only two games on the go. Both games are Eastern Time Zone games, which means we might have enough time to see our families after the end of the game. Unders have been a reliable trend over the last five days, hitting at 62.1%. Keep an eye on that trend tonight.
Here are the plays!
New York Rangers vs. Boston Bruins
Bruins moneyline (-176): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Bruins +1.5 (+160): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 5.5 (-115): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The Boston Bruins are on some kind of heater, winning seven of their last eight while collecting points in all of them, going 7-0-1. The Bs have some sterling metrics to support those outcomes. Over that eight-game sample Boston is out-chancing their opponents in scoring chances 211-to-179, which translates to a 54.1% scoring chance percentage, and 85-to-58 in high-danger opportunities, or 59.4%. The absolute amount of chances they are allowing is absurdly low, at 7.3 per game, which speaks to the defensive efficiency of this team.
What's scary about Boston's outcomes is that they are skating around with a 1.004 PDO, which implies that their level of production is sustainable.
The New York Rangers are in the middle of an eight-game homestand and things are off to a good start. The Rangers are 2-1-1 through four games and across all strengths have posted a positive expected goals-for ratio in each game. The problem, however, is that the Blueshirts are relying heavily on powerplay metrics and have been largely ineffective at five-on-five.
Since starting their homestand, New York has been out-possessed in all four games and posted a negative expected goals-for percentage in three of four. They have yet to create more high-danger chances in any of those games and have just five goals. Unless the Rangers find a way to be more competitive, particularly at five-on-five, wins will be harder to come by.
The price on the Bruins has been climbing since opening and should continue to move in that direction ahead of puck drop. Our model implies that their advantage is still in excess of the betting market, meaning that there is still value in backing them both on the moneyline and puckline, both of which are rated as one-star plays. The total for tonight's contest sits at 5.5 with the over juiced slightly up to -115. Our projections have this one climbing over the number, making the over a one-star play as well.
Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Leafs moneyline (-108): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The Toronto Maple Leafs come into tonight's contest against the Montreal Canadiens on the exact same 7-0-1 run over their last eight games as the Bruins. They will be carrying some impressive offensive momentum when they invade the Centre Bell.
The Leafs have accumulated 31 or more scoring chances and 14 or more high-danger chances in three of their last five. They've scored 22 goals in that span, which has resulted in a sizzling 15.4% shooting percentage.
The Habs have been rolling offensively this season as well, but have hit a bit of a snag with output. Montreal managed just two goals in each of their last two games, which could be an indicator that they are entering a correction phase. Montreal has scored 48 goals on the year, which is 14.0 higher than their 34.0 expected goals-for. Don't be surprised if Montreal is snake-bitten over the next few games while their metrics balance out.
The first time these teams met, Toronto went off for 48 scoring chances, 12 of which were of the high-danger variety.
It's hard to bet against a team that is offensively productive as the Leafs are, and that's reflected in our projections, which give the Leafs a 53.4% chance of winning. Montreal had a hard time containing the Leafs in their first matchup and based on our model, we should expect more of the same tonight. Leafs moneyline is a one-star play.
