NHL Betting Guide: Monday 9/28/20

It's do-or-die for the Dallas Stars tonight as they look to even their series against the Tampa Bay Lightning and force a Game 7.

Here's a look at tonight's action!

Dallas Stars vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Stars moneyline (+150): 1-Star Rating Out of 5

If we were relying strictly on advanced metrics, the Dallas Stars should have a 3-2 series lead against the Tampa Bay Lightning, not the other way around.

Through five games, Dallas has outpaced Tampa in expected goals on three occasions, although Game 3 was a near coin-flip proposition. Dallas has been doing most of their damage via high-danger opportunities, out-chancing their Eastern conference foes by a 64-60 margin, and out-scoring them in high-danger goals 12-8.

Meanwhile, Tampa holds the advantage in powerplay goals by a 6-1 margin. Those goals have been the difference as Tampa went 6-for-12 with the man-advantage in Games 2, 3, and 4, and is 3-0 when scoring on the power-play so far this series.

The Lightning have also lacked a killer instinct in their elimination games so far this postseason. Since eliminating Columbus Blue Jackets in the first round, the Bolts have managed only eight goals through four elimination games, with all four games staying under the total. The biggest indictment of their inability to close games is that each of their five elimination games has required overtime.

For the Stars to force a Game 7, they'll have to continue to make the most of their high-danger chances and stay out of the penalty box. If Game 5 was any indication, in which there were three total penalties, I suspect that the officials will try and avoid making their mark in the series, and let the players sort it out themselves.

According to our projections, Tampa's advantage isn't as big as the betting market implies. Currently, the Stars are installed as +150 underdogs, which carries with it an implied probability of 40.0%. Our algorithm gives the Stars a 42.3% chance at winning, leaving bettors with an advantage in backing the Stars tonight. We rate it as a one-star play.