NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 9/3/20

After being down 3-1 in their series against the Dallas Stars the Colorado Avalanche won last night to force a deciding Game 7. The Philadelphia Flyers and Vancouver Canucks are hoping that's a sign of things to come for their teams as they try to force Game 7s in their respective series.

Here are a couple plays worth looking at!

New York Islanders vs. Philadelphia Flyers

Flyers moneyline (+115): 1-Star Rating Out of 5

The cards might be stacked against the Philadelphia Flyers tonight, especially with Sean Couturier's participation in doubt. Flyers bettors will be hoping that a couple road trends continue through Game 6.

Philadelphia has fared quite well as the "away" team in the bubble, compiling a 5-2 record. What's been particularly impressive is their ability to limit goals against. "Home" teams have collected a paltry 10 goals against the Flyers through seven games. This road dominance dates back to February, when the Flyers started on a 6-2 run, meaning they've won 11 of their last 15 games as the visitors.

Hockey players have a pretty good reputation of playing in crunch time despite injuries. That resiliency becomes even more evident in the postseason, and I'm not convinced we've seen the last of Couturier in this series.

The other thing working against the New York Islanders is Semyon Varlamov might be in a correction phase. Varlamov came into the bubble hot for New York. He posted a 94.1% save percentage while allowing 15 goals through 10 games. His efforts culminated with back-to-back shutouts, knocking out the Washington Capitals and in Game 1 versus Philly.

In three appearances since then, Varlamov has stopped only 61 of 69 shots, allowed eight goals against and been pulled. Not so nice.

Our projections have the Islanders as modest favorites with 52.7% win odds, leaving the Flyers with a 47.3% chance at forcing a Game 7. The implied probability of +115 is 46.5%, leaving bettors with a modest edge in taking Philadelphia to win.

Vancouver Canucks vs. Vegas Golden Knights

Canucks +1.5 (-125): 5-Star Rating Out 5

On Tuesday, I outlined some trends that might favor the Vancouver Canucks against the Vegas Golden Knights. After watching Game 5, some of those trends might hold water. That's not to diminish what Thatcher Demko did, because his performance was out of this world, but the Golden Knights continue to remain snake-bitten in elimination games.

Vegas is also hoping that goaltending won't be an issue tonight. Robin Lehner has shown flashes of brilliance, but overall he's been inconsistent this postseason. Lehner has yet to post consecutive above-average game scores, alternating hot and cold starts since the NHL relaunched. This is evidenced in his 12th-ranked goals against average and 18th-ranked save percentage.

numberFire's algorithm projects the Canucks as 51.4% favorites in this one, which is in stark contrast to the betting market at FanDuel Sportsbook. Currently, Vancouver is listed as +210 on the moneyline and -125 to cover the puck line at +1.5. We rate those plays as three-star and five-star wagers, respectively.