NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 8/25/20
Here are a couple plays from our algorithm!
Lightning moneyline (-110): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 5.5 (+105): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The Boston Bruins stole "home-ice advantage" by taking Game 1 of the series on Sunday night. With the victory, the series price swung dramatically in favor of the Bruins, with Boston now listed as -205 series favorites over at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Advanced metrics suggest that the Bruins might not be deserving of their prohibitive favorite price tag, though. Boston has been badly outplayed at five-on-five over their last two games, which is indicative of a longer five-on-five trend. Boston has given up advantages in possession, shots, scoring chances and high-danger metrics in each of the last two games. They've been victorious in both thanks to Jaroslav Halak's 95.7% save percentage at even-strength.
Although the metrics aren't as concerning, over the last five games Boston has managed to score only six goals at five-on-five. The total output matches what they've accomplished with the man-advantage over the same five-game sample. The Bruins can't continuously be outplayed and still be able to walk away victorious.
Hot goaltenders have tempered the Tampa Bay Lightning's offensive output early in the postseason. But it might just be a matter of time before their domination is rewarded. The Bolts are top three in most possession and production metrics but rank dead-last among remaining bubble teams with their 7.2% shooting percentage. If production continues, it should be a matter of time before output follows.
Tampa Bay can't afford to go down 2-0 to the Bruins, particularly with Bruins getting last change in the next two games. Our projections give Tampa a 53.7% chance of winning today, which is better than -110 currently available in the betting market. Taking Tampa on the moneyline is a one-star play, with the over listed as a two-star play.
Canucks +1.5 (-145): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
After some convincing performances in the opening two rounds, the Vancouver Canucks were severely outmatched in their series opener versus the Vegas Golden Knights. The ice was tilted in Vegas' favor for most of the game, as they out-possessed and out-chanced their division rivals. In Game 1, the Canucks' save percentage dropped below 90.3% for just the second time this postseason. It was also only the second time these playoffs that the Canucks were outscored in high-danger goals.
But Vancouver has shown some resilience these playoffs. From an expected goals for (xGf) perspective, the Canucks have been outplayed in five games this postseason. Vancouver went on to win the next game and lead xGf in three of the four games following a convincing defeat.
The Canucks have not lost back-to-back games by more than one goal yet this postseason. Vegas also hasn't covered the puckline in back-to-back games since the first two games of the playoffs. Our algorithm projects those trends to continue tonight. Canucks +1.5 is a three-star play