NHL Betting Guide: Friday 8/14/20
Yesterday, we saw three teams tie their respective series at one game apiece, with only the Vegas Golden Knights managing to take a 2-0 lead in their series. There are four Game 2s on the schedule for today. Both the Vancouver Canucks and New York Islanders will hope to take commanding 2-0 leads with home ice shifting in their favor for Games 3 and 4. It's with that in mind, that we take a look at wagers for their respective contests.
Here are a couple wagers from our projections!
St. Louis Blues vs. Vancouver Canucks
Over 5.5 (+120): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Goals are flowing pretty naturally for the Vancouver Canucks right now. Since being blanked in their first game back after the pause, the Canucks are averaging 4.3 goals per game. Vancouver has been particularly effective on the power play, going 7 for 24 and recording at least one power-play goal in four straight games.
Advanced metrics suggest that Vancouver has taken a quality over quantity approach to their recent onslaught. Shots and scoring chances are on the lower end of the spectrum at 27.5 and 22.0, respectively. High-danger chances are abundant at 11.5 per game. Vancouver's making the most of those opportunities, collecting seven goals over the four-game sample.
High-danger opportunities are exactly what the St. Louis Blues are struggling with. They've given up high-danger goals in every game since the relaunch. More concerning is that they are giving up more high-danger chances and creating fewer relative to their regular season numbers.
St. Louis' special teams have been anything but special. Their penalty kill has been floundering, allowing goals on 28.6% of power plays, while they're capitalizing only on 13.3% of chances with the man-advantage. Something has got to give if the Blues want to even things up in this series.
Vancouver is excelling in areas where the Blues are struggling, which is a recipe for disaster. If the Blues want to keep pace, they'll have to find more ways to score -- which suggests that high-scoring games might be a recurring theme in this series. This aligns with our projections, which rate over 5.5 as a two-star play.
Washington Capitals vs. New York Islanders
Over 5.5 (+120): 2-Star Rating out of 5
It's not from lack of effort, but Alex Ovechkin is in a offensive rut. Ovi currently leads Washington Capitals' forwards in average ice time at 21:41 per game, with 65.4% of his starts coming in the offensive zone. Through four postseason games, his lines are dominating possession, shots and scoring chance metrics. For some reason, though, Ovechkin remains pointless.
Extended pointless streaks are hard to come by for Ovi. Since the 2015 season, his longest pointless streak was five games. Basically, Ovechkin can't be suppressed forever. I, for one, expect the floodgates to open when he regains his scoring touch. Since the start of the 2016 campaign, Ovechkin has gone pointless in four or more consecutive games on four occasions. Three of the four games in which he's ended his pointless streak have gone over the total.
The New York Islanders have found their offensive rhythm early in the postseason and flashed some resiliency along the way. New York erased a two-goal deficit in Game 1 of the series to come back and win 4-2. It's the second time the Islanders have erased a deficit to come back and win this postseason.
Since play resumed, New York is averaging 3.4 goals on 27.6 scoring chances and 11.4 high-danger chances per game. As a result, the Islanders have scored four or more goals in three of their last four. Unsurprisingly, three of those four games have eclipsed a 5.5-goal total.
Keep in mind these teams have gone over the total in four straight meetings.
Based on numberFire's projections, this should be a high-scoring game. Ovechkin will try to get the Capitals' offense back on track while the Isles will look to keep their offensive momentum going. FanDuel Sportsbook has this total set at 5.5 with +120 on the over. We rate the over as a two-star play.
