NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 2/12/19
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight's NHL slate.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Capitals Puckline +1.5 (-200): 3-Star Rating out of 5
The Washington Capitals are on the second night of a back-to-back but will have Braden Holtby in net tonight since he wasn't between the pipes last evening. He will be facing off against Sergei Bobrovsky in what should be a close game since both goalies have been struggling as of late.
The Columbus Blue Jackets are on a three-game win streak and are sitting just four points behind the Capitals in the Metropolitan Division, making this game all the more intense as we are coming down to the end of the season. Historically, these teams have played very close games as 6 of the last 10 matchups between these two have been decided by only one goal, according to Killer Sports.
The Capitals come in with a 51.38 Corsi Against over the past month, meaning they are giving up a ton of shots every game, along with the Blue Jackets not being much better with their Corsi Against, sitting at 46. We also have both teams coming in scoring over three goals per game over the past month, which sets things up for a very fast-paced, high-scoring game in which no one team has a clear advantage.
We have a tight divisional battle with two struggling defenses but consistent offenses, which has our models showing the Capitals covering the +1.5 puckline 73.64% of the time for a 10.50% return.
Under 5.5 (-115): 2-Star Rating out of 5
The New York Islanders come into this game as the best defensive team in the league, allowing the fewest goals this season, a trend which is new to them compared to where they were last season. That is due in larger part to Robin Lehner, who is likely to be in net tonight and comes in allowing three or fewer goals in each of his last 12 starts.
The Islanders are allowing a sparkling 1.46 goals per game over the past month, which is not only the best of any team on the slate, it's a full-half goal better than the next team. Their defense has truly been noteworthy and shines through so much that the Sabres come in with an implied goal total sitting at only 2.44 despite being at home in this game.
The Sabres are a good team but not one you need to be afraid of, and they come in with three or fewer goals in four of their last six games. Generally speaking for the Sabres, if their top line with Jack Eichel and Jeff Skinner aren't producing points, they won't be scoring too many goals.
Watching high-powered offenses is great, but we likely won't be seeing that in this game, which is why our models have the under hitting at a 59.40% likelihood -- good for an 11.10% return.
Under 5.5 (+100): 2 Star-Rating out of 5
While this game has little value from a fantasy perspective, it boasts strong betting value, which we can jump on.
Since the Vegas Golden Knights are in the same division as the Arizona Coyotes, we have a solid sample size to look at. According to Killer Sports, these two teams have faced off seven times since the start of last season, with the under hitting in four of those games, including three of the last four matchups. Both teams head into this game scoring fewer than three goals per game over the past month, which presents an unappealing game from an offensive perspective. The Coyotes come in with the second-lowest implied team total (2.27) on the night.
Still, our models have the under hitting at a 59.00% likelihood, good for an 18.00% return.
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