NHL Playoffs First Round Preview: Western Conference

Anaheim Ducks vs. Calgary Flames

A series between the Calgary Flames and Anaheim Ducks is going to be nothing short of what we'd expect to see as the two teams have been building quite the rivalry over the past three seasons. After the Ducks eliminated Calgary in the 2014 semifinal round, we finally see John Gaudreau with the opportunity to take his team to a place where the Flames have not been since the 2004 season, that being the Stanley Cup Final.

But do the Flames have enough firepower to match the high-flying Ducks? Our metrics don't quite think so, as they have placed the Flames as the weakest of the 16 playoff eligible teams.

In fact, they are one of only two playoff teams with a negative nERD metric, meaning that they are expected to be beaten by .04 goals by a league-average team on neutral ice. In a series that features a Ducks team with a nERD of .25, the opportunity to advance seems bleak.

For Calgary to be successful, we will need to see immense success from Johnny Hockey as well as teammates Sean Monahan, Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk, because the Flames will need to matchup with the scoring prowess of the multitude of Ducks powerhouses such as Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Ryan Kesler and deadline acquisition Patrick Eaves.

In a five-game season series between the two clubs, we saw exactly what we expected by our nERD metric as Anaheim took four of five games, including the most recent on April 4th. But what we also see is the Flames ability to outperform a strong Ducks team with an excellent effort, as shown by their 8-3 triumph on December 4th.

As it stands today, our models give the advantage to the Ducks in a rather wide margin as compared to other series, with Anaheim's probability to win the series in any fashion standing at 59.68%.