Using Our Draft Kit to Win Your NFL.com Fantasy Football League
Quick! What do you think about Seattle Seahawks running back Thomas Rawls?
His broken ankle is still holding back him in training camp, but he produced like an elite fantasy rusher when he was healthy last season. He's a third-round pick in fantasy football on average, according to Fantasy Football Calculator. Would you take him there, or is the risk too great?
Well, if you play fantasy football on ESPN, you'll have to decide sooner, as he's listed 20th in ESPN's draft app. On Yahoo's draft app, he's 35th. If you play on NFL.com, you can probably wait a bit to decide, as he's way down at 62nd overall in the draft app.
You aren't guaranteed to get him that late, but what if you could get him in the fourth or even the fifth as opposed to the second or third? Does that change things? It should.
That's why knowing your draft site is important.
Here's what you need to know about drafting on NFL.com, according to what our customized projections have to say for their default scoring setup.
Fundamental Principles
1. There is a running back/wide receiver flex in default leagues. ESPN's default setup offers a running back/wide receiver/tight end flex. Yahoo's offers a three-receiver format rather than a flex. NFL's default is a two-position flex.
2. The NFL.com draft app is high on receivers. You can start three receivers, so it's not crazy, but in standard-scoring setups, there are too many receivers listed early relative to what our projections say.
3. Tight ends are pretty reasonably valued. You won't find the list flooded with tight ends early. Only four are listed inside the top 75.
4. There are some massive discrepancies between our rankings and theirs early on. It's pretty common to see big shifts as the draft progresses, but our algorithms view some of the top picks in NFL.com's app as pretty significantly off the mark.
Overvalued NFL.com Players According to Our Projections
We generally start these with overvalued quarterbacks and tight ends, but as alluded to already, there aren't too many tight ends who are high in the app. Rather, there are a slew of receivers in the top 50 (26 compared to our 17 based on the default NFL.com league settings).
These are the players we view at least 12 picks differently inside NFL.com's top 50.
Player | Pos | NFL | nF Standard | Diff | nF PPR | Diff |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Brown | WR | 48 | 99 | -51 | 106 | -58 |
Jordan Reed | TE | 41 | 86 | -45 | 75 | -34 |
Michael Floyd | WR | 47 | 90 | -43 | 102 | -55 |
Donte Moncrief | WR | 49 | 89 | -40 | 91 | -42 |
Keenan Allen | WR | 23 | 56 | -33 | 22 | 1 |
Jarvis Landry | WR | 34 | 65 | -31 | 29 | 5 |
Amari Cooper | WR | 27 | 54 | -27 | 47 | -20 |
Russell Wilson | QB | 40 | 66 | -26 | 78 | -38 |
Greg Olsen | TE | 46 | 71 | -25 | 62 | -16 |
Demaryius Thomas | WR | 28 | 49 | -21 | 32 | -4 |
Julian Edelman | WR | 39 | 58 | -19 | 37 | 2 |
A.J. Green | WR | 8 | 26 | -18 | 23 | -15 |
Dez Bryant | WR | 10 | 28 | -18 | 24 | -14 |
Allen Robinson | WR | 14 | 30 | -16 | 30 | -16 |
Brandin Cooks | WR | 32 | 48 | -16 | 33 | -1 |
Mike Evans | WR | 22 | 37 | -15 | 41 | -19 |
Alshon Jeffery | WR | 20 | 34 | -14 | 28 | -8 |
Brandon Marshall | WR | 21 | 35 | -14 | 27 | -6 |
Rob Gronkowski | TE | 9 | 22 | -13 | 20 | -11 |
The Arizona Cardinals' duo of John Brown and Michael Floyd are listed back-to-back in the NFL.com app, but taking them where they're listed requires you to be confident that both can perform near their ceiling.
Four top-14 picks -- A.J. Green, Rob Gronkowski, Dez Bryant, Allen Robinson -- are overpriced based on our projections. Further, picks 20, 21, and 22 (Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall, and Mike Evans) are about 15 spots too high, as well.
At quarterback, we see three top-100 options in the NFL.com app noticeably overvalued: Russell Wilson (66th in our standard rankings, 40th in the NFL.com app), Tom Brady (71st, 231st), and Eli Manning (123rd, 97th).
Undervalued NFL.com Players According to Our Projections
All the running backs, right? Kind of.
Here are the guys we see at least 12 spots better than their NFL.com rank.
Player | Pos | NFL | nF Standard | Diff | nF PPR | Diff |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Thomas Rawls | RB | 62 | 18 | 44 | 40 | 22 |
Jeremy Langford | RB | 73 | 36 | 37 | 55 | 18 |
Latavius Murray | RB | 53 | 20 | 33 | 25 | 28 |
DeMarco Murray | RB | 63 | 32 | 31 | 48 | 15 |
Andrew Luck | QB | 74 | 43 | 31 | 68 | 6 |
Drew Brees | QB | 70 | 46 | 24 | 70 | 0 |
Le'Veon Bell | RB | 35 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 16 |
Matt Jones | RB | 50 | 31 | 19 | 38 | 12 |
Ryan Mathews | RB | 36 | 19 | 17 | 21 | 15 |
Jonathan Stewart | RB | 37 | 21 | 16 | 36 | 1 |
Carson Palmer | QB | 66 | 50 | 16 | 71 | -5 |
Jamaal Charles | RB | 17 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 12 |
Danny Woodhead | RB | 51 | 38 | 13 | 16 | 35 |
Jeremy Hill | RB | 58 | 45 | 13 | 65 | -7 |
Mostly running backs, this list offers some pretty significant value, as these players are all, in theory, potential starting running backs. I know there are plenty of reasons to shy away from assuming running backs will stay healthy and be bellcows, but at these discounted prices, they're worth the gamble, especially in standard leagues.
Hidden Gems
DeAndre Washington is listed 194th in the app but is 108th in our standard rankings. He's a Latavius Murray injury or benching away from some significant opportunity. Darren Sproles can be found 156th but is our 83rd-ranked player in standard setups.
Dion Lewis is our 33rd-ranked player but 101st in the app, and teammate LeGarrette Blount is our 61st-ranked player but 120th in the app.
Terrance Williams is 222nd in the app but 125th per our rankings. Way down in the app is Michael Thomas (928th) and Sammie Coates (600th). Neither is a sure thing, but they could go overlooked in your draft simply because nobody will scroll past their name.