Using Our Draft Kit to Win Your Fantasy Football League

Who is a steal and a reach in leagues? Find out and win your draft.

Quick! What do you think about Seattle Seahawks running back Thomas Rawls?

His broken ankle is still holding back him in training camp, but he produced like an elite fantasy rusher when he was healthy last season. He's a third-round pick in fantasy football on average, according to Fantasy Football Calculator. Would you take him there, or is the risk too great?

Well, if you play fantasy football on ESPN, you'll have to decide sooner, as he's listed 20th in ESPN's draft app. On Yahoo's draft app, he's 35th. If you play on, you can probably wait a bit to decide, as he's way down at 62nd overall in the draft app.

You aren't guaranteed to get him that late, but what if you could get him in the fourth or even the fifth as opposed to the second or third? Does that change things? It should.

That's why knowing your draft site is important.

Here's what you need to know about drafting on, according to what our customized projections have to say for their default scoring setup.

Fundamental Principles

1. There is a running back/wide receiver flex in default leagues. ESPN's default setup offers a running back/wide receiver/tight end flex. Yahoo's offers a three-receiver format rather than a flex. NFL's default is a two-position flex.

2. The draft app is high on receivers. You can start three receivers, so it's not crazy, but in standard-scoring setups, there are too many receivers listed early relative to what our projections say.

3. Tight ends are pretty reasonably valued. You won't find the list flooded with tight ends early. Only four are listed inside the top 75.

4. There are some massive discrepancies between our rankings and theirs early on. It's pretty common to see big shifts as the draft progresses, but our algorithms view some of the top picks in's app as pretty significantly off the mark.

Overvalued Players According to Our Projections

We generally start these with overvalued quarterbacks and tight ends, but as alluded to already, there aren't too many tight ends who are high in the app. Rather, there are a slew of receivers in the top 50 (26 compared to our 17 based on the default league settings).

These are the players we view at least 12 picks differently inside's top 50.

Player Pos NFL nF Standard Diff nF PPR Diff
John Brown WR 48 99 -51 106 -58
Jordan Reed TE 41 86 -45 75 -34
Michael Floyd WR 47 90 -43 102 -55
Donte Moncrief WR 49 89 -40 91 -42
Keenan Allen WR 23 56 -33 22 1
Jarvis Landry WR 34 65 -31 29 5
Amari Cooper WR 27 54 -27 47 -20
Russell Wilson QB 40 66 -26 78 -38
Greg Olsen TE 46 71 -25 62 -16
Demaryius Thomas WR 28 49 -21 32 -4
Julian Edelman WR 39 58 -19 37 2
A.J. Green WR 8 26 -18 23 -15
Dez Bryant WR 10 28 -18 24 -14
Allen Robinson WR 14 30 -16 30 -16
Brandin Cooks WR 32 48 -16 33 -1
Mike Evans WR 22 37 -15 41 -19
Alshon Jeffery WR 20 34 -14 28 -8
Brandon Marshall WR 21 35 -14 27 -6
Rob Gronkowski TE 9 22 -13 20 -11

The Arizona Cardinals' duo of John Brown and Michael Floyd are listed back-to-back in the app, but taking them where they're listed requires you to be confident that both can perform near their ceiling.

Four top-14 picks -- A.J. Green, Rob Gronkowski, Dez Bryant, Allen Robinson -- are overpriced based on our projections. Further, picks 20, 21, and 22 (Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall, and Mike Evans) are about 15 spots too high, as well.

At quarterback, we see three top-100 options in the app noticeably overvalued: Russell Wilson (66th in our standard rankings, 40th in the app), Tom Brady (71st, 231st), and Eli Manning (123rd, 97th).

Undervalued Players According to Our Projections

All the running backs, right? Kind of.

Here are the guys we see at least 12 spots better than their rank.

Player Pos NFL nF Standard Diff nF PPR Diff
Thomas Rawls RB 62 18 44 40 22
Jeremy Langford RB 73 36 37 55 18
Latavius Murray RB 53 20 33 25 28
DeMarco Murray RB 63 32 31 48 15
Andrew Luck QB 74 43 31 68 6
Drew Brees QB 70 46 24 70 0
Le'Veon Bell RB 35 16 19 19 16
Matt Jones RB 50 31 19 38 12
Ryan Mathews RB 36 19 17 21 15
Jonathan Stewart RB 37 21 16 36 1
Carson Palmer QB 66 50 16 71 -5
Jamaal Charles RB 17 2 15 5 12
Danny Woodhead RB 51 38 13 16 35
Jeremy Hill RB 58 45 13 65 -7

Mostly running backs, this list offers some pretty significant value, as these players are all, in theory, potential starting running backs. I know there are plenty of reasons to shy away from assuming running backs will stay healthy and be bellcows, but at these discounted prices, they're worth the gamble, especially in standard leagues.

Hidden Gems

DeAndre Washington is listed 194th in the app but is 108th in our standard rankings. He's a Latavius Murray injury or benching away from some significant opportunity. Darren Sproles can be found 156th but is our 83rd-ranked player in standard setups.

Dion Lewis is our 33rd-ranked player but 101st in the app, and teammate LeGarrette Blount is our 61st-ranked player but 120th in the app.

Terrance Williams is 222nd in the app but 125th per our rankings. Way down in the app is Michael Thomas (928th) and Sammie Coates (600th). Neither is a sure thing, but they could go overlooked in your draft simply because nobody will scroll past their name.