What Are the Odds a Specific Tight End Will Fall to You in Your Fantasy Football Draft?
Over the past few days on numberFire, we've been checking out the odds that specific running backs and wide receivers will fall to you in your fantasy football snake drafts. This is a useful exercise because it allows you to properly implement game theory into your decision making and maximize the value of each pick.
Tight end is a bit of a different beast.
Because you're only picking one or two of these puppies, the incentive to wait as long as possible before selecting one is greater than it would be at running back or wide receiver. With this jacked up opportunity cost, it's important not to reach in order to get the player you want on your roster.
Once again, we can use the data from Fantasy Football Calculator to address this issue. Here, we can find not only the average draft position (ADP) of each player, but also the standard deviation of that ADP. This allows us to find the odds that a specific player will be available at each pick throughout the draft.
You can find these odds for your league's scoring rules in the links below.
Once again, these data points come from Fantasy Football Calculator based on drafts that took place from August 19th through August 21st. The sheets will be updated each Sunday night to reflect the fluctuations in ADP from the previous week.
Because these are open sheets, you won't be able to edit them within these specific documents. That said, there are still ways to customize them to make them more relevant to your league and situation.
To do this, go to the sheet and hover over "File." There, you will see an option to download the file with "Download As." Hover there and select the format in which you would like the file. The ideal choice here is Microsoft Excel because the formulas from the Google doc will transfer over into that program.
Once that's done, you'll be able to edit the document on your own computer. You can replace the numbers in the top row -- from column D and over -- with the picks associated with your specific draft (i.e. picks 1, 24, 25, 48, 49, etc. if you're picking first in a 12-team snake draft). This will give you the odds of each player being available for every time you're on the clock.
More so even than with running backs and wide receivers, this will be subject to change in your specific draft. If your leaguemates get a bit antsy, they may start reaching early for guys who would usually be available in the eighth round and beyond. This makes it a bit more important to monitor trends throughout the draft.
This is why the standard deviations on the tight ends may be a bit higher than you would see on other players. Both tight end Julius Thomas and wide receiver Markus Wheaton have ADP's right near pick 95. However, Thomas' standard deviation is 12.4 picks, and Wheaton's is 9.5 picks. This shows the heavier variance associated with Thomas' draft slot relative to that of Wheaton.
That said, this variance will be baked into the probabilities on the sheet. Unless your league goes way off the rails, things should still largely align with the data because it does include the deviations from one draft to the next. This is why the sheets can still be useful, even at a more volatile position.