Fantasy Football Mailbag: Friday 8/5/16
Fantasy football research never stops, and offseason news can really complicate things, especially when coaches talk up second- and third-string players. That's why we're starting up a fantasy football mailbag.
Have a question about a certain player, team, draft strategy, or anything football? Shoot us a question on Twitter or send an email to Brandon.Gdula@FanDuel.com, and we can talk anything fantasy football related -- even daily fantasy football.
Now, let's answer some questions.
@numberFire how does draft strategy change when drafting in a two QB league and how early should you target your first QB?
— Ben Bruno (@BenBBruno) August 5, 2016
Two-quarterback leagues are fun. They eliminate a point of exploitation -- rostering just one quarterback in a league full of potent passers -- and force your hand to make sure you can't wait forever for your fantasy signal caller.
To figure out just how much the two-quarterback setup changes things, we'll turn over to our draft kit, which is fully customizable. The cool thing about our draft kit (well, one cool thing among many) is that it spits out a value called FireFactor, which is a one-number value that shows just that: value. It factors in your league settings and shows you how important a given player is based on your actual league.
Let's learn by example. Assuming 12-team leagues with 1 tight end, 2 running backs, 2 receivers, and 1 running back/receiver/tight end flex with 4 points for a passing touchdown and -2 for interceptions, here are the top 20 quarterbacks' FireFactors.
|Player||1QB FireFactor||2QB FireFactor||Player||1QB FireFactor||2QB FireFactor|
|Aaron Rodgers||103.63||200.16||Philip Rivers||22.1||118.63|
|Cam Newton||88.64||185.17||Tony Romo||21.41||117.94|
|Andrew Luck||76.5||173.03||Matt Ryan||18.04||114.57|
|Drew Brees||74.46||170.99||Matthew Stafford||17.88||114.41|
|Carson Palmer||73.77||170.3||Eli Manning||17.6||114.13|
|Russell Wilson||62.51||159.04||Marcus Mariota||4.39||100.92|
|Ben Roethlisberger||57.23||153.76||Ryan Fitzpatrick||3.93||100.46|
|Blake Bortles||26.94||123.47||Kirk Cousins||1.73||98.26|
|Tyrod Taylor||24.34||120.87||Jameis Winston||1.46||97.99|
|Andy Dalton||22.75||119.28||Teddy Bridgewater||1.16||97.69|
So, in one-quarterback setups, Aaron Rodgers is the 17th-most valuable player. In 2QB leagues, he's the top. Cam Newton bumps from 24th to 2nd. Andrew Luck (38th in 1QB leagues), Drew Brees (41st), and Carson Palmer (44th) jump up to round out the top five.
Basically, only seven quarterbacks are worth top-65 picks (Blake Bortles is 100th overall) in 1QB formats, but seven become top-10 picks in 2QB leagues, per our algorithms. That's not to say that you need to start your drafts with two quarterbacks, though 15 of our top-30 in 2QB setups are quarterbacks.
Only nine of the top 30 picks in 2QB drafts, per Fantasy Football Calculator, are actually quarterbacks. The numbers suggest that you can gain an edge by targeting quarterbacks early on, but you'll have to factor in whether or not your leagues reward points for receptions and how deep your rosters are.
If you're in a standard league with a second quarterback being the only caveat, then get them early.
@numberFire six pick in half ppr league. Who do u take
— heim time (@heimtime30) August 5, 2016
The sixth pick is pretty rough, but we'll look at this the same way we did with the 2QB question.
In a 12-team, half-PPR league, our rankings suggest taking David Johnson sixth overall. Of course, we have to make sure that he might be there with the sixth pick, and half-PPR ADP is tough to find.
Per Fantasy Football Calculator, in standard leagues, Antonio Brown (1.01), Odell Beckham (1.03), Julio Jones (1.04), Todd Gurley (1.04), and Adrian Peterson (1.05) are the most likely picks to be off the board by pick six, and Johnson is most frequently the 1.06, so you're set there.
If the drafters skew a bit more PPR-heavy before you, then you could likely get Peterson at pick six. We value him as the second-best player in this setup right now.
Want to have your questions answered in our mailbag? Submit your questions by tweeting @numberFire or sending an email to Brandon.Gdula@FanDuel.com.