Fantasy Football Mailbag: Thursday 8/4/16
Fantasy football research never stops, and offseason news can really complicate things, especially when coaches talk up second- and third-string players. That's why we're starting up a fantasy football mailbag.
Have a question about a certain player, team, draft strategy, or anything football? Shoot us a question on Twitter or send an email to Brandon.Gdula@FanDuel.com, and we can talk anything fantasy football related -- even daily fantasy football.
Now, let's answer some questions.
@numberFire should we take any of these players higher than their #ADP ?:
Eric Decker#FantasyFootball #nfl
— J Boogie (@jboog901) August 4, 2016
That would depend a lot on each player's average draft positon (ADP), so we need to start there. According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Le'Veon Bell is the first of the four off the board -- unsurprisingly.
Bell's ADP is 1.12, meaning he's the 12th-player off the board on average and the last player in the first round. When setting our customizable draft kit rankings to these scoring settings, we see Bell as the 22nd-most valuable player this season. That's really just because of his suspension. However, the only way that Bell is worth it at his current ADP (or higher) is if his suspension gets overturned -- which sounds possible. But to spend a first-round pick on him is gambling that his suspension gets knocked down.
Next on your list is Eric Decker, who is taken at 5.08 on average as the 58th player and the 27th receiver. Our draft kit ranks him 45th overall, as the 19th-best receiver in standard formats. You can definitely reach on him a bit, and I certainly wouldn't fault you.
Arian Foster is a pretty special case, as his ADP has jumped to 6.04, and he's the 27th back off the board. We view him as the 33rd-best running back and the 81st-most valuable player overall. He's currently being valued as the 64th overall player, which is too high.
History isn't really on his side when it comes to recovering from his injuries, and Miami's offensive line isn't quite what he got used to in Houston over the years. He's got amazing upside if he becomes the Foster of old, but it's an unlikely occurrence, and he's being overvalued right now.
As for Josh Gordon, he's the 32nd receiver taken at 6.11 on average. Our projections are a little lower on him, given the state of his offense. We view him as the WR43, though it's obvious how he can outperform that projection. For him to outperform his cost, though, he'll need to play as a WR2 when he's on the field.
Of course, if you feel confident with your start, Gordon really only needs to be a WR3 for your team once his suspension ends, and that's certainly not a stretch. If he slips into the seventh round, by all means, take your shot. But reaching much higher than his current cost probably isn't a great choice from a full-season perspective.
@numberFire how should we think about potential negative coorelation's impact on draft value? example: if Lat Murray+Cooper are both cheap
— Yung Gentrify (@LoudSharp) August 3, 2016
There's a pretty common feeling that rostering multiple players from the same team limits your upside. And to an extent, that's true. Football production isn't linked across all positions. You'll benefit if you roster a quarterback plus the receiver who catches his touchdowns and racks up yardage, but if your running back scores, your receiver can't.
What can we learn from the 2015 season about this very concept?
Excluding Week 17 because it's not relevant for fantasy football, teams boasted a running back who scored at least 10 PPR points and a receiver who did the same 311 times (of 480 possible games), for a hit rate of about 65%. Now, 10 PPR points from two players isn't going to win you your week, but there is definitely a chance for multiple players on the same team to produce even within the same week.
If we bump that line up to 15 PPR points, it happened 140 times in 2015 (29.2% of games). That's not a majority, but it doesn't suggest that you should avoid pairing teammates at all costs (if we consider that not all teams have running backs and receivers worth starting).
Want to have your questions answered in our mailbag? Submit your questions by tweeting @numberFire or sending an email to Brandon.Gdula@FanDuel.com.